Fault Tree Analysis in Projects - Revision history

Tkokotas at 12:37, 18 December 2018

2018-12-18T12:37:04Z

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			''Developed by Arvin Fattah''


	'''Fault tree analysis (FTA)''' is defined by the <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Electrotechnical_Commission International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC)]</span> and the <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Organization_for_Standardization International Organization for Standardization (ISO)]</span> as a "technique for identifying and analysing factors that can contribute to a specified undesired event".<ref name="iso" />		'''Fault tree analysis (FTA)''' is defined by the <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Electrotechnical_Commission International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC)]</span> and the <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Organization_for_Standardization International Organization for Standardization (ISO)]</span> as a "technique for identifying and analysing factors that can contribute to a specified undesired event".<ref name="iso" />

Tkokotas at 20:16, 23 October 2018

2018-10-23T20:16:21Z

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	[[Category:Risk Management]]		[[Category:Risk Management]]
	[[Category:Uncertainty]]		[[Category:Uncertainty]]
			[[Category:Risk]]

Arvin: /* Annotated bibliography */

2016-09-26T20:30:09Z

Annotated bibliography

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	<br>		<br>
	* ''Marcin Krysinski, and George Anders, "Fault Tree Analysis in a Project Context", 2005''		* ''Marcin Krysinski, and George Anders, "Fault Tree Analysis in a Project Context", 2005''
	:'''Annotation:''' This text offers a great in-depth analysis on how to apply FTA to projects. The authors use "delay of the project completion" as an example of how risk assessment can be used on projects. The article offers an in-depth analysis of the theory behind the risk assessment in projects, as well as the different criteria that are ~~necesary~~ to uphold. This study further shows more elaborate equations and calculations that can used when calculating the probabilities of failures and also gives many examples and ~~criterias~~ for the top events from a project management perspective as well as outlining how a FTA can relate to projects and be applied in a project management level.		:'''Annotation:''' This text offers a great in-depth analysis on how to apply FTA to projects. The authors use "delay of the project completion" as an example of how risk assessment can be used on projects. The article offers an in-depth analysis of the theory behind the risk assessment in projects, as well as the different criteria that are necessary to uphold. This study further shows more elaborate equations and calculations that can used when calculating the probabilities of failures and also gives many examples and criteria for the top events from a project management perspective as well as outlining how a FTA can relate to projects and be applied in a project management level.
	<br>		<br>
	* ''Silvianita, Dirgha S Mahandeka, and Daniel M Rosyid, "Fault Tree Analysis for Investigation on the Causes of Project Problems", 2015''		* ''Silvianita, Dirgha S Mahandeka, and Daniel M Rosyid, "Fault Tree Analysis for Investigation on the Causes of Project Problems", 2015''

Arvin: /* Identifying risks */

2016-09-26T20:27:37Z

Identifying risks

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	===Identifying risks===		===Identifying risks===

	Identifying the risks related to the project is of crucial importance, and the more thorough the risk identification is, the more detailed and insightful the fault tree becomes. Risk identification includes many different methods such as evidence based methods (i.e. historical data) or inductive reasoning techniques such as <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazard_and_operability_study Hazard and operability study (HAZOP)]</span>.<ref name="iso" /><ref name="richard" /> Field ~~obersvations~~ by for instance using interviews or analysing project documents can be other ways of obtaining data.<ref name="silvianita" /> For the quantitative analysis, the probabilities of each of the identified risks need to be estimated in order to apply Boolean algebra and calculate the overall risk of the top event occurring. Some events can be based on evidence and other data such as market analyses that can estimate the probability of a shortage on a certain material. Other events are based on human activities such as budget estimation errors, which are much more difficult to measure. Various methods exist that can be used to estimate human activity errors, such as <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technique_for_human_error-rate_prediction Technique for human error rate prediction (THERP)]</span> or [[Performance shaping factors\|Performance shaping factors (PSFs)]].<ref name="krysinski" /> Other times it can be useful to take advantage of expert judgments in order to correctly determine the probabilities of base events.<ref name="silvianita" />		Identifying the risks related to the project is of crucial importance, and the more thorough the risk identification is, the more detailed and insightful the fault tree becomes. Risk identification includes many different methods such as evidence based methods (i.e. historical data) or inductive reasoning techniques such as <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazard_and_operability_study Hazard and operability study (HAZOP)]</span>.<ref name="iso" /><ref name="richard" /> Field observations by for instance using interviews or analysing project documents can be other ways of obtaining data.<ref name="silvianita" /> For the quantitative analysis, the probabilities of each of the identified risks need to be estimated in order to apply Boolean algebra and calculate the overall risk of the top event occurring. Some events can be based on evidence and other data such as market analyses that can estimate the probability of a shortage on a certain material. Other events are based on human activities such as budget estimation errors, which are much more difficult to measure. Various methods exist that can be used to estimate human activity errors, such as <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technique_for_human_error-rate_prediction Technique for human error rate prediction (THERP)]</span> or [[Performance shaping factors\|Performance shaping factors (PSFs)]].<ref name="krysinski" /> Other times it can be useful to take advantage of expert judgments in order to correctly determine the probabilities of base events.<ref name="silvianita" />

	===Minimal cut sets===		===Minimal cut sets===

Arvin: /* Annotated bibliography */

2016-09-26T20:24:24Z

Annotated bibliography

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	<br>		<br>
	* ''Robert Beresh, John Ciufo, and George Anders, "Basic Fault Tree Analysis for use in Protection Reliability", 2009''		* ''Robert Beresh, John Ciufo, and George Anders, "Basic Fault Tree Analysis for use in Protection Reliability", 2009''
	:'''Annotation:''' This article offers a brief description of the FTA and how it can be applied in various situations. It explains the construction of a FTA on a basic level that is very accessible and easy to read for practitioners who may have very limited knowledge in the subject. It furthermore includes very good descriptions of the minimal cut sets that have been used in this article as a source. This article is recommended for further analysis of the ~~minmal~~ cut set analysis.		:'''Annotation:''' This article offers a brief description of the FTA and how it can be applied in various situations. It explains the construction of a FTA on a basic level that is very accessible and easy to read for practitioners who may have very limited knowledge in the subject. It furthermore includes very good descriptions of the minimal cut sets that have been used in this article as a source. This article is recommended for further analysis of the minimal cut set analysis.
	<br>		<br>
	* ''Patrick D.T. O'Connor, "Practical Reliability Engineering", 3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons, 1992''		* ''Patrick D.T. O'Connor, "Practical Reliability Engineering", 3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons, 1992''

Arvin: /* Annotated bibliography */

2016-09-26T20:21:53Z

Annotated bibliography

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	* ''IEC/ISO 31010, "Risk management - Risk assessment techniques", 2009''		* ''IEC/ISO 31010, "Risk management - Risk assessment techniques", 2009''
	:'''Annotation:''' A comprehensive collection of risk management theory, terminology, techniques, methods~~, etc~~. The text has been created by two prominent organisations upholding the international standard. This text is good for getting a broader and general understanding of risk management. The theory and various risk management methods are described in a basic and accessible language for all types of practitioners, and many of the risk management methods are very relevant for the FTA. In particular methods like the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) are described in detail which are closely related to FTA.		:'''Annotation:''' A comprehensive collection of risk management theory, terminology, techniques and methods. The text has been created by two prominent organisations upholding the international standard. This text is good for getting a broader and general understanding of risk management. The theory and various risk management methods are described in a basic and accessible language for all types of practitioners, and many of the risk management methods are very relevant for the FTA. In particular methods like the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) are described in detail which are closely related to FTA.
	<br>		<br>
	* ''Marcin Krysinski, and George Anders, "Fault Tree Analysis in a Project Context", 2005''		* ''Marcin Krysinski, and George Anders, "Fault Tree Analysis in a Project Context", 2005''

Arvin: /* Limitations */

2016-09-26T20:20:01Z

Limitations

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	As with many other tools, FTA has certain weaknesses and limitations that needs to be addressed as well:		As with many other tools, FTA has certain weaknesses and limitations that needs to be addressed as well:
	* Probabilities for certain events are many times unknown due to uncertainty or lack of data. This can lead to inaccurate calculations of the probabilities of the top ~~event~~ which can have an adverse effect on the project.<ref name="iso" /><ref name="richard" /> The human element in itself is difficult to measure and quantify<ref name="richard" /> which is especially important to consider when applying FTA to projects, as the human element plays a large role in project management.		* Probabilities for certain events are many times unknown due to uncertainty or lack of data. This can lead to inaccurate calculations of the probabilities of the top events which can have an adverse effect on the project.<ref name="iso" /><ref name="richard" /> The human element in itself is difficult to measure and quantify<ref name="richard" /> which is especially important to consider when applying FTA to projects, as the human element plays a large role in project management.
	* It is not always possible to know whether all causal factors have been found for a particular top event or if more remain undiscovered.<ref name="iso" /><ref name="richard" />		* It is not always possible to know whether all causal factors have been found for a particular top event or if more remain undiscovered.<ref name="iso" /><ref name="richard" />
	* As FTA is a static model, time-dimensions are not included which for many projects can be crucial.<ref name="iso" />		* As FTA is a static model, time-dimensions are not included which for many projects can be crucial.<ref name="iso" />

Arvin: /* Strengths and weaknesses */

2016-09-26T20:16:30Z

Strengths and weaknesses

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	* A graphical overview of the risks involved that could contribute to the failure of the project.		* A graphical overview of the risks involved that could contribute to the failure of the project.
	* The systematic approach of a FTA ~~forced~~ the analyst to understand the system (and thereby the project) thoroughly.<ref name="richard" />		* The systematic approach of a FTA forces the analyst to understand the system (and thereby the project) thoroughly.<ref name="richard" />
	* Additional fault trees can be created for the same project, taking several top events into consideration.		* Additional fault trees can be created for the same project, taking several top events into consideration.
	* The method offers a systematic approach that is still flexible enough to incorporate different types of causal factors such as human behavior and physical phenomena.<ref name="iso" />		* The method offers a systematic approach that is still flexible enough to incorporate different types of causal factors such as human behavior and physical phenomena.<ref name="iso" />

Arvin: /* Strengths and weaknesses */

2016-09-26T20:15:21Z

Strengths and weaknesses

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	==Strengths and weaknesses==		==Strengths and weaknesses==

	FTA offers many benefits for a project team to aid the overall successful completion of the project. The aim is to identify the critical parts of a project that compromises the reliability of the project, so that the project team can then reduce the overall risk for a specific event within the project to occur. FTA is able to cover many, if not all aspects of a project in terms of failure and success rate. By offering both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the project risks, team members and project managers are able to create a visual representation of the project which results in a quantitative analysis on the probabilities ~~as a reference~~.		FTA offers many benefits for a project team to aid the overall successful completion of the project. The aim is to identify the critical parts of a project that compromises the reliability of the project, so that the project team can then reduce the overall risk for a specific event within the project to occur. FTA is able to cover many, if not all aspects of a project in terms of failure and success rate. By offering both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the project risks, team members and project managers are able to create a visual representation of the project which results in a quantitative analysis on the probabilities.

	In particular, there are many strengths and benefits to be achieved from the FTA:		In particular, there are many strengths and benefits to be achieved from the FTA:

Arvin: /* Strengths and weaknesses */

2016-09-26T20:14:28Z

Strengths and weaknesses

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:14, 26 September 2016
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	==Strengths and weaknesses==		==Strengths and weaknesses==

	FTA offers many benefits for a project team to aid the overall successful completion of the project. The aim is to identify the critical parts of a project that compromises the reliability of the project, so that the project team can then reduce the overall risk for a specific event within the project to occur. FTA is able to cover many, if not all aspects of a project in terms of failure and success rate. By offering both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the project risks, team members and project managers are able to create a visual representation of the project which results in in a quantitative analysis on the probabilities as a reference.		FTA offers many benefits for a project team to aid the overall successful completion of the project. The aim is to identify the critical parts of a project that compromises the reliability of the project, so that the project team can then reduce the overall risk for a specific event within the project to occur. FTA is able to cover many, if not all aspects of a project in terms of failure and success rate. By offering both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the project risks, team members and project managers are able to create a visual representation of the project which results in a quantitative analysis on the probabilities as a reference.

	In particular, there are many strengths and benefits to be achieved from the FTA:		In particular, there are many strengths and benefits to be achieved from the FTA: