http://13.50.150.85/index.php?action=history&feed=atom&title=Levels_of_uncertainty 2026-07-15T23:09:50Z Revision history for this page on the wiki MediaWiki 1.43.3 http://13.50.150.85/index.php?title=Levels_of_uncertainty&diff=146992&oldid=prev 2023-05-09T20:08:56Z

<p></p> <table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en-GB"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:08, 9 May 2023</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l128">Line 128:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 128:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>• This article showcases some ontologies for assessing levels of uncertainty in project, programs, and portfolios. However, there are many more out there. The ontologies included differ by what uncertainty is measured, and do therefore present different approaches. Other ontologies definitely has merit as well, but is more or less different indentations between risk, uncertainty, and ignorance, as presented early on by (Oehmen &amp; Kwakkel, 2020).</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>• This article showcases some ontologies for assessing levels of uncertainty in project, programs, and portfolios. However, there are many more out there. The ontologies included differ by what uncertainty is measured, and do therefore present different approaches. Other ontologies definitely has merit as well, but is more or less different indentations between risk, uncertainty, and ignorance, as presented early on by (Oehmen &amp; Kwakkel, 2020).</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>• This approach of assessing ontologies of uncertainty levels based on their source is something, I have not found in literature. The model presented is therefore, also, of own production, and should be viewed with some (healthy) scepticism.</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>• This approach of assessing ontologies of uncertainty levels based on their source is something, I have not found in literature. The model presented is therefore, also, of own production, and should be viewed with some (healthy) scepticism.</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-added"></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-added"></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">== Further reading ==</del></div></td><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-added"></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> </table>

S183638 http://13.50.150.85/index.php?title=Levels_of_uncertainty&diff=146985&oldid=prev 2023-05-09T20:08:18Z

<p><span class="autocomment">Discussion on the merits of each ontology</span></p> <table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en-GB"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:08, 9 May 2023</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l97">Line 97:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 97:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Discussion on the merits of each ontology ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Discussion on the merits of each ontology ==</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The proposed frameworks each contribute valuable insights and address various types of uncertainty. As the ontologies overlap, they can complement and enhance each other's understanding. For instance, the two inherent levels of epistemic vs. aleatory uncertainty are present in levels one, two, and three of Riesch's ontology, and similarly are Meyer and Riesch's frameworks not mutually exclusive. Therefore, uncertainty can refer to external parameters (Riesch Level 2) and be caused by variation within the project (Meyer Level 1). This integrative view of combining frameworks is also evident within the ontologies themselves. Riesch and fellow uncertainty researcher Wynne both argue that the levels can be applied “on top of each other”, rather than in a stepwise approach (Wynne, 1992).</del></div></td><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-added"></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">However, determining the </del>right <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">combination of uncertainty levels for a specific challenge within project, program, and portfolio management can still be a complex task. This still requires a skilled practitioner. In figure </del>1<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, the different levels are attempted visualised, to show the overlapping effects</del>. The <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">usefulness of the model especially comes from the fact that epistemic uncertainty can be diminished by gathering additional knowledge. So, if, “level 4: uncertainty of acknowledged inadequacies” is present, this might be solved or transformed to a lesser level by obtaining more knowledge as well. If the uncertainty is aleatoric, as with “foreseen uncertainty”, then it is easy to decipher a way forward of using risk management strategies to accommodate the uncertainty. Some levels can lie between these two, for instance can variation both derive from a lack of knowledge and simple bad luck. Other uncertainties are slightly </del>overlapping <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">as well. This is the case for both “level three” and “level four” with “unforeseen uncertainty” as they both contain elements </del>of <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">unforeseen </del>uncertainty <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">within them. “Chaos” is placed far from the other’s as it describes cases in which a project has moved so far from its original scope, that it is unrecognisable. </del></div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped.png|400px|</ins>right<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">|middle|thumb|Figure </ins>1. The overlapping of uncertainty <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">ontologies (own production)]]</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The proposed frameworks each contribute valuable insights and address various types of uncertainty. As the ontologies overlap, they can complement and enhance each other's understanding. For instance, the two inherent levels of epistemic vs. aleatory uncertainty are present in levels one, two, and three of Riesch's ontology, and similarly are Meyer and Riesch's frameworks not mutually exclusive. Therefore, uncertainty can refer to external parameters (Riesch Level 2) and be caused by variation within the project (Meyer Level 1). This integrative view of combining frameworks is also evident within the ontologies themselves. Riesch and fellow uncertainty researcher Wynne both argue that the levels can be applied “on top of each other”, rather than in a stepwise approach (Wynne, 1992).</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">However, determining the right combination of uncertainty levels for a specific challenge within project, program, and portfolio management can still be a complex task. This still requires a skilled practitioner</ins>. <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">In figure </ins>1<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, the different levels are attempted visualised, to show the overlapping effects</ins>. The <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">usefulness of the model especially comes from the fact that epistemic uncertainty can be diminished by gathering additional knowledge. So, if, “level 4: uncertainty of acknowledged inadequacies” is present, this might be solved or transformed to a lesser level by obtaining more knowledge as well. If the uncertainty is aleatoric, as with “foreseen uncertainty”, then it is easy to decipher a way forward of using risk management strategies to accommodate the uncertainty. Some levels can lie between these two, for instance can variation both derive from a lack of knowledge and simple bad luck. Other uncertainties are slightly </ins>overlapping <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">as well. This is the case for both “level three” and “level four” with “unforeseen uncertainty” as they both contain elements </ins>of <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">unforeseen </ins>uncertainty <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">within them. “Chaos” is placed far from the other’s as it describes cases in which a project has moved so far from its original scope, that it is unrecognisable.</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped</del>.<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">png|400px|right|middle|thumb|Figure </del>1. The overlapping of uncertainty <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">ontologies (own production)]]</del></div></td><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-added"></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td></tr> </table>

S183638 http://13.50.150.85/index.php?title=Levels_of_uncertainty&diff=146982&oldid=prev 2023-05-09T20:07:58Z

<p><span class="autocomment">Discussion on the merits of each ontology</span></p> <table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en-GB"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:07, 9 May 2023</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l103">Line 103:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 103:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped.png]]</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped.png<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">|400px|right|middle|thumb|Figure 1. The overlapping of uncertainty ontologies (own production)</ins>]]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td></tr> </table>

S183638 http://13.50.150.85/index.php?title=Levels_of_uncertainty&diff=146973&oldid=prev 2023-05-09T20:07:02Z

<p><span class="autocomment">Discussion on the merits of each ontology</span></p> <table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en-GB"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:07, 9 May 2023</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l103">Line 103:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 103:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped.<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">jpg</del>]]</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped.<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">png</ins>]]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td></tr> </table>

S183638 http://13.50.150.85/index.php?title=Levels_of_uncertainty&diff=146964&oldid=prev 2023-05-09T20:05:14Z

<p><span class="autocomment">Discussion on the merits of each ontology</span></p> <table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en-GB"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:05, 9 May 2023</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l101">Line 101:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 101:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>However, determining the right combination of uncertainty levels for a specific challenge within project, program, and portfolio management can still be a complex task. This still requires a skilled practitioner. In figure 1, the different levels are attempted visualised, to show the overlapping effects. The usefulness of the model especially comes from the fact that epistemic uncertainty can be diminished by gathering additional knowledge. So, if, “level 4: uncertainty of acknowledged inadequacies” is present, this might be solved or transformed to a lesser level by obtaining more knowledge as well. If the uncertainty is aleatoric, as with “foreseen uncertainty”, then it is easy to decipher a way forward of using risk management strategies to accommodate the uncertainty. Some levels can lie between these two, for instance can variation both derive from a lack of knowledge and simple bad luck. Other uncertainties are slightly overlapping as well. This is the case for both “level three” and “level four” with “unforeseen uncertainty” as they both contain elements of unforeseen uncertainty within them. “Chaos” is placed far from the other’s as it describes cases in which a project has moved so far from its original scope, that it is unrecognisable.  </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>However, determining the right combination of uncertainty levels for a specific challenge within project, program, and portfolio management can still be a complex task. This still requires a skilled practitioner. In figure 1, the different levels are attempted visualised, to show the overlapping effects. The usefulness of the model especially comes from the fact that epistemic uncertainty can be diminished by gathering additional knowledge. So, if, “level 4: uncertainty of acknowledged inadequacies” is present, this might be solved or transformed to a lesser level by obtaining more knowledge as well. If the uncertainty is aleatoric, as with “foreseen uncertainty”, then it is easy to decipher a way forward of using risk management strategies to accommodate the uncertainty. Some levels can lie between these two, for instance can variation both derive from a lack of knowledge and simple bad luck. Other uncertainties are slightly overlapping as well. This is the case for both “level three” and “level four” with “unforeseen uncertainty” as they both contain elements of unforeseen uncertainty within them. “Chaos” is placed far from the other’s as it describes cases in which a project has moved so far from its original scope, that it is unrecognisable.  </div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped.<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">png.png|right|middle|thumb|Figure 1. The overlapping of uncertainty ontologies (own production)</del>]]</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped.<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">jpg</ins>]]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td></tr> </table>

S183638 http://13.50.150.85/index.php?title=Levels_of_uncertainty&diff=146955&oldid=prev 2023-05-09T20:04:15Z

<p><span class="autocomment">Discussion on the merits of each ontology</span></p> <table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en-GB"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:04, 9 May 2023</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l101">Line 101:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 101:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>However, determining the right combination of uncertainty levels for a specific challenge within project, program, and portfolio management can still be a complex task. This still requires a skilled practitioner. In figure 1, the different levels are attempted visualised, to show the overlapping effects. The usefulness of the model especially comes from the fact that epistemic uncertainty can be diminished by gathering additional knowledge. So, if, “level 4: uncertainty of acknowledged inadequacies” is present, this might be solved or transformed to a lesser level by obtaining more knowledge as well. If the uncertainty is aleatoric, as with “foreseen uncertainty”, then it is easy to decipher a way forward of using risk management strategies to accommodate the uncertainty. Some levels can lie between these two, for instance can variation both derive from a lack of knowledge and simple bad luck. Other uncertainties are slightly overlapping as well. This is the case for both “level three” and “level four” with “unforeseen uncertainty” as they both contain elements of unforeseen uncertainty within them. “Chaos” is placed far from the other’s as it describes cases in which a project has moved so far from its original scope, that it is unrecognisable.  </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>However, determining the right combination of uncertainty levels for a specific challenge within project, program, and portfolio management can still be a complex task. This still requires a skilled practitioner. In figure 1, the different levels are attempted visualised, to show the overlapping effects. The usefulness of the model especially comes from the fact that epistemic uncertainty can be diminished by gathering additional knowledge. So, if, “level 4: uncertainty of acknowledged inadequacies” is present, this might be solved or transformed to a lesser level by obtaining more knowledge as well. If the uncertainty is aleatoric, as with “foreseen uncertainty”, then it is easy to decipher a way forward of using risk management strategies to accommodate the uncertainty. Some levels can lie between these two, for instance can variation both derive from a lack of knowledge and simple bad luck. Other uncertainties are slightly overlapping as well. This is the case for both “level three” and “level four” with “unforeseen uncertainty” as they both contain elements of unforeseen uncertainty within them. “Chaos” is placed far from the other’s as it describes cases in which a project has moved so far from its original scope, that it is unrecognisable.  </div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped.png.png<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">|400px</del>|right|middle|thumb|Figure 1. The overlapping of uncertainty ontologies (own production)]]</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped.png.png|right|middle|thumb|Figure 1. The overlapping of uncertainty ontologies (own production)]]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td></tr> </table>

S183638 http://13.50.150.85/index.php?title=Levels_of_uncertainty&diff=146949&oldid=prev 2023-05-09T20:03:49Z

<p><span class="autocomment">Discussion on the merits of each ontology</span></p> <table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en-GB"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:03, 9 May 2023</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l102">Line 102:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 102:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped.png.png|400px|right|middle|thumb|Figure 1. The overlapping of uncertainty ontologies (own production)]]</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[File:Types_of_uncertainty_overlapped.png.png|400px|right|middle|thumb|Figure 1. The overlapping of uncertainty ontologies (own production)]]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-added"></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>== Uncertainties for projects, programs, and portfolios ==</div></td></tr> </table>

S183638 http://13.50.150.85/index.php?title=Levels_of_uncertainty&diff=146929&oldid=prev 2023-05-09T20:01:01Z

<p><span class="autocomment">Uncertainty based on severity (4 levels) – How critical is the uncertainty?</span></p> <table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en-GB"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:01, 9 May 2023</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l66">Line 66:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 66:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To manage variation, including buffers in a Critical Path strategy to catch up on delays, can be recommended.  </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To manage variation, including buffers in a Critical Path strategy to catch up on delays, can be recommended.  </div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Foreseen uncertainty Meyer’s take on foreseen uncertainty is very similar to what have previously been described as risk management in this article. Foreseen uncertainties are identifiable influences that may or may not occur.  </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Foreseen uncertainty Meyer’s take on foreseen uncertainty is very similar to what have previously been described as risk management in this article. Foreseen uncertainties are identifiable influences that may or may not occur.  </div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To manage foreseen uncertainty, the tools in Project Risk Management can be applied as well as doing contingency plans for the project <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[Standard]</del>.  </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To manage foreseen uncertainty, the tools in Project Risk Management can be applied as well as doing contingency plans for the project <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">(PMI, 2017)</ins>.  </div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&#039;&#039;&#039;Unforeseen uncertainty&#039;&#039;&#039; This level of uncertainty can also be described as &quot;unknown unknowns,&quot; as famously stated by former US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld (Project Management Institute, 2019, p. 26). Unknown uncertainties refer to risks that are not accounted for in any plans or strategies because they are completely unexpected and are near-impossible to plan against.  </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&#039;&#039;&#039;Unforeseen uncertainty&#039;&#039;&#039; This level of uncertainty can also be described as &quot;unknown unknowns,&quot; as famously stated by former US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld (Project Management Institute, 2019, p. 26). Unknown uncertainties refer to risks that are not accounted for in any plans or strategies because they are completely unexpected and are near-impossible to plan against.  </div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l74">Line 74:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 74:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&#039;&#039;&#039;Chaos&#039;&#039;&#039; The final level in Meyer’s ontology is managing chaos. In chaos, the outcome of a project ends up being so far from the initial project scope that it has little to no application for it. This can mean project failure, or a completely unforeseen secondary benefit. An example being the invention and market introduction of Viagra, which was firstly intended as medication for high blood pressure (Meyer et al., 2002).  </div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&#039;&#039;&#039;Chaos&#039;&#039;&#039; The final level in Meyer’s ontology is managing chaos. In chaos, the outcome of a project ends up being so far from the initial project scope that it has little to no application for it. This can mean project failure, or a completely unforeseen secondary benefit. An example being the invention and market introduction of Viagra, which was firstly intended as medication for high blood pressure (Meyer et al., 2002).  </div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Managing chaos can seem like a paradox, but to do it, nonetheless, requires a high degree of autonomy for project managers and an iterative approach to the project work. R&amp;D are often prone to work in chaotic environments and rapid prototyping is an effective way to do this. To allow working in chaos, companies must, however, also be ruthless in killing projects when the chances for success become too small.  </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Managing chaos can seem like a paradox, but to do it, nonetheless, requires a high degree of autonomy for project managers and an iterative approach to the project work. R&amp;D are often prone to work in chaotic environments and rapid prototyping is an effective way to do this. To allow working in chaos, companies must, however, also be ruthless in killing projects when the chances for success become too small.</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Uncertainty based on source (5 levels) – What are we uncertain about? ==</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Uncertainty based on source (5 levels) – What are we uncertain about? ==</div></td></tr> </table>

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<p><span class="autocomment">Bibliography</span></p> <table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en-GB"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 15:33, 9 May 2023</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l108">Line 108:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 108:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>#Kiureghian, A. Der, &amp; Ditlevsen, O. (2009). Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter? 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Hart, Schaffner &amp; Marx; Houghton Mifflin Co. https://archive.org/details/riskuncertainty00knig_0</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>https://archive.org/details/riskuncertainty00knig_0</div></td><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-added"></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>#Meyer, A. de, Loch, C. H., &amp; Meyer, D. (2002). Managing project uncertainty: From variation to chaos Managing project uncertainty. 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