Minimizing Risk and Uncertainties in Construction Projects - Revision history

Tkokotas at 15:02, 18 December 2018

2018-12-18T15:02:52Z

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	''Developed by ~~Minimizing Risk and Uncertainties in Construction Projects~~''		''Developed by Alberto Vilar Bustos''

Tkokotas at 15:02, 18 December 2018

2018-12-18T15:02:01Z

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			''Developed by Minimizing Risk and Uncertainties in Construction Projects''


	The difficulty of managing the individual flows in the construction process is mostly due to unpredictable conditions, scheduling pressures and the large amount of parts involved. This approach analyzes how uncertainties and risk are created and how they can be managed by the means of Lean Construction principles.		The difficulty of managing the individual flows in the construction process is mostly due to unpredictable conditions, scheduling pressures and the large amount of parts involved. This approach analyzes how uncertainties and risk are created and how they can be managed by the means of Lean Construction principles.

Tkokotas at 17:17, 23 October 2018

2018-10-23T17:17:35Z

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	[[Category:Project Management]][[Category:Construction Industry‏‎]][[Category:Uncertainty]][[Category:Lean Management]][[Category:Risk~~]][[Category:Lean~~]]		[[Category:Project Management]][[Category:Construction Industry‏‎]][[Category:Uncertainty]][[Category:Lean Management]][[Category:Risk]]

Tkokotas at 17:10, 23 October 2018

2018-10-23T17:10:35Z

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	[[Category:Project Management]][[Category:~~Lean~~ Construction]][[Category:Uncertainty]][[Category:Lean Management]][[Category:Risk]][[Category:Lean]]		[[Category:Project Management]][[Category:Construction Industry‏‎]][[Category:Uncertainty]][[Category:Lean Management]][[Category:Risk]][[Category:Lean]]

S142581 at 11:37, 28 September 2015

2015-09-28T11:37:33Z

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	* '''Space''': must be appropriate and safe		* '''Space''': must be appropriate and safe
	* '''External circumstances''': should be clarified		* '''External circumstances''': should be clarified


	===Location-Based Scheduling===		===Location-Based Scheduling===
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	Regarding the Last Planner System, there are a series of limitations. Firstly, the team should have some background training in the LPS and understand perfectly their roles in the process. Although it will create maximum value for the client, this requires training time and cost. In terms of scheduling, if a team member completes a task before it is schedule, the team needs to rethink the planning process. The next task could be done earlier, but it is not because the team member has not planned to do it. This can be defined as losses add up, and gains can never be recovered, and the team does not take advantage of the fast performance of the tasks. However, there can be a clause for which the team member must give notification with 24 hours in advance, if he anticipates the early completion of his task. This way, the team member in charge of the next task can adjust his plans as well.		Regarding the Last Planner System, there are a series of limitations. Firstly, the team should have some background training in the LPS and understand perfectly their roles in the process. Although it will create maximum value for the client, this requires training time and cost. In terms of scheduling, if a team member completes a task before it is schedule, the team needs to rethink the planning process. The next task could be done earlier, but it is not because the team member has not planned to do it. This can be defined as losses add up, and gains can never be recovered, and the team does not take advantage of the fast performance of the tasks. However, there can be a clause for which the team member must give notification with 24 hours in advance, if he anticipates the early completion of his task. This way, the team member in charge of the next task can adjust his plans as well.

	Regarding the ~~LBS~~, the incentive to implement this method seems obvious. But studies have concluded that the absence of a common coherent and standardized information system is a main challenge when implementing it. The use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tools may solve this problem.		Regarding the Location-Based Schedule, the incentive to implement this method seems obvious. But studies have concluded that the absence of a common coherent and standardized information system is a main challenge when implementing the system. The use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tools may solve this problem.

	==Bibliography==		==Bibliography==

S142581 at 11:34, 28 September 2015

2015-09-28T11:34:29Z

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	* Evaluation and quality assurance of the executed work.		* Evaluation and quality assurance of the executed work.

	This follows the line of Lean philosophy and ~~share~~ the advantages of the Last Planner System. It seems logical to assume that the efficient flow of resources in LBS will decrease the level of uncertainty, and therefore, decrease the variability of task durations. This being said, it can be stated that the LBS seems to be an adjunct to the LPS, rather than a replacement.		This follows the line of Lean philosophy and shares the advantages of the Last Planner System. It seems logical to assume that the efficient flow of resources in LBS will decrease the level of uncertainty, and therefore, decrease the variability of task durations. This being said, it can be stated that the LBS seems to be an adjunct to the LPS, rather than a replacement.

	Locations are important in the construction industry since it is not a systematic repetitive process, but a series of physical locations in which tasks are variable and of different type and quatity<ref> ''Location-Based Management of Construction Projects: Part of a new typology for project scheduling methodologies, Russel Kenley and Olli Seppänen, 2009'' </ref>. The location is the container for data which relates to the project. The LBS is hierarchical so that a higher level location includes all the data of the lower level locations. Each of the locations have a different purpose and the highest level is used to optimize the construction sequence~~, since~~ the structures of such sections are independent of each other, ~~therefore~~ it is possible to start them simultaneously. The middle levels are used to plan the production flows, and the lowest levels for planning the finishes. This allows the data to be collected at different levels. The location consists of the following data:		Locations are important in the construction industry since it is not a systematic repetitive process, but a series of physical locations in which tasks are variable and of different type and quatity<ref> ''Location-Based Management of Construction Projects: Part of a new typology for project scheduling methodologies, Russel Kenley and Olli Seppänen, 2009'' </ref>. The location is the container for data which relates to the project. The LBS is hierarchical so that a higher level location includes all the data of the lower level locations. Each of the locations have a different purpose and the highest level is used to optimize the construction sequence. Since the structures of such sections are independent of each other, it is possible to start them simultaneously. The middle levels are used to plan the production flows, and the lowest levels for planning the finishes. This allows the data to be collected at different levels. The location consists of the following data:

	* '''Building objects''': components such as elements and sub-systems, that should be included, not only in drawings, but also as a 3D object oriented construction model.		* '''Building objects''': components such as elements and sub-systems, that should be included, not only in drawings, but also as a 3D object oriented construction model.
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	==Limitations==		==Limitations==

	Regarding the ~~LPS~~ there are a series of limitations. Firstly, the team should have some background training in the LPS and understand perfectly their roles in the process. Although it will create maximum value for the client, this requires training time and cost. In terms of scheduling, if a team member completes a task before it is schedule, the team needs to rethink the planning process. The next task could be done earlier, but it is not because the team member has not planned to do it. This can be defined as losses add up, and gains can never be recovered, and the team does not take advantage of the fast performance of the tasks. However, there can be a clause for which the team member must give notification with 24 hours in advance, if he anticipates the early completion of his task. This way, the team member in charge of the next task can adjust his plans as well.		Regarding the Last Planner System, there are a series of limitations. Firstly, the team should have some background training in the LPS and understand perfectly their roles in the process. Although it will create maximum value for the client, this requires training time and cost. In terms of scheduling, if a team member completes a task before it is schedule, the team needs to rethink the planning process. The next task could be done earlier, but it is not because the team member has not planned to do it. This can be defined as losses add up, and gains can never be recovered, and the team does not take advantage of the fast performance of the tasks. However, there can be a clause for which the team member must give notification with 24 hours in advance, if he anticipates the early completion of his task. This way, the team member in charge of the next task can adjust his plans as well.

	Regarding the LBS, the incentive to implement this method seems obvious. But studies have concluded that the absence of a common coherent and standardized information system is a main challenge when implementing it. The use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tools may solve this problem.		Regarding the LBS, the incentive to implement this method seems obvious. But studies have concluded that the absence of a common coherent and standardized information system is a main challenge when implementing it. The use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tools may solve this problem.

S142581 at 09:36, 28 September 2015

2015-09-28T09:36:54Z

S142581: /* Lean Construction */

2015-09-25T16:50:37Z

Lean Construction

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	Lean Construction can be defined as the adaptation of the principles of Lean Production to fit the needs of a construction project. The value is set by the client, and this value consists in the needs, wishes and demands. In order to maximize the values, it is necessary to deliver a product that fulfils the customer expectations at the proper time and quality. Lean Construction is able to achieve this by reducing the waste, this means, to eliminate all that is not relevant for the client’s values. Reducing waste is reducing waste of time, waste in not delivering what the customer wanted, waste in overproduction, etc.<ref> ''Jakob Lemming, Lecture 3: "Lean Construction" from 42286 Planning and Management in Construction, 2015'' </ref>		Lean Construction can be defined as the adaptation of the principles of Lean Production to fit the needs of a construction project. The value is set by the client, and this value consists in the needs, wishes and demands. In order to maximize the values, it is necessary to deliver a product that fulfils the customer expectations at the proper time and quality. Lean Construction is able to achieve this by reducing the waste, this means, to eliminate all that is not relevant for the client’s values. Reducing waste is reducing waste of time, waste in not delivering what the customer wanted, waste in overproduction, etc.<ref> ''Jakob Lemming, Lecture 3: "Lean Construction" from 42286 Planning and Management in Construction, 2015'' </ref>
	But to fulfill this waste reduction, the industry of construction has been developing different ideas or processes, continuously trying to find the best solution.		But to fulfill this waste reduction, the industry of construction has been developing different ideas or processes, continuously trying to find the best solution. In this approach three important tools to assess planning and risk management are analyzed:

			* Transformation, Flow and Value.
			* Last Planner System.
			* Location-Based Scheduling.

	==Methods for minimizing risks and uncertainties in construction projects==		==Methods for minimizing risks and uncertainties in construction projects==

S142581 at 16:38, 25 September 2015

2015-09-25T16:38:39Z

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	Furthermore, it is necessary to control the risk source through the project life cycle, since the probability of risk events can be assessed when we receive and monitor the information. When the risk probability has passed the point of becoming a risk event, it can be removed from the risk register. This process requires the full implication and commitment of the project management team, because it is during this phase that awareness of possible unknown-unknowns events can grow.		Furthermore, it is necessary to control the risk source through the project life cycle, since the probability of risk events can be assessed when we receive and monitor the information. When the risk probability has passed the point of becoming a risk event, it can be removed from the risk register. This process requires the full implication and commitment of the project management team, because it is during this phase that awareness of possible unknown-unknowns events can grow.

	In addition, uncertainties are the reason of possible cost overruns and delays. Many factors can be responsible of creating this uncertainties, such as the fluctuations in cost of materials, lack of resources, changes in design and specifications or financial problems. Therefore, a study of the possible cost overrun factors is required. But the most effective solution to this is to have a proper project planning, and Lean Construction is the ideal tool.		In addition, uncertainties are the reason of possible cost overruns and delays. Many factors can be responsible of creating this uncertainties, such as the fluctuations in cost of materials, lack of resources, changes in design and specifications or financial problems. Therefore, a study of the possible cost overrun factors is required. But the most effective solution to this is to have a proper project planning, and Lean Construction is the ideal tool<ref> ''Cost overrun factors and Project cost risk assessment in Construction industry - Savita Sharma and Pradeep K. Goyal, 2014'' </ref>.

	===Lean Construction===		===Lean Construction===

S142581 at 16:35, 25 September 2015

2015-09-25T16:35:45Z

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	This being said, the purpose of risk management is to help eliminate the unknown-unknowns and decrease uncertainty by having all risks known-knowns. This way, the complexity will be minimized and also the predictability, to some extent.		This being said, the purpose of risk management is to help eliminate the unknown-unknowns and decrease uncertainty by having all risks known-knowns. This way, the complexity will be minimized and also the predictability, to some extent.

			Furthermore, it is necessary to control the risk source through the project life cycle, since the probability of risk events can be assessed when we receive and monitor the information. When the risk probability has passed the point of becoming a risk event, it can be removed from the risk register. This process requires the full implication and commitment of the project management team, because it is during this phase that awareness of possible unknown-unknowns events can grow.

			In addition, uncertainties are the reason of possible cost overruns and delays. Many factors can be responsible of creating this uncertainties, such as the fluctuations in cost of materials, lack of resources, changes in design and specifications or financial problems. Therefore, a study of the possible cost overrun factors is required. But the most effective solution to this is to have a proper project planning, and Lean Construction is the ideal tool.

	===Lean Construction===		===Lean Construction===

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	The difficulty of managing the individual flows in the construction process is mostly due to unpredictable conditions, scheduling pressures and the large amount parts involved. This approach ~~analyses~~ how uncertainties and risk are created and how they can be managed by the means of Lean Construction principles.		The difficulty of managing the individual flows in the construction process is mostly due to unpredictable conditions, scheduling pressures and the large amount of parts involved. This approach analyzes how uncertainties and risk are created and how they can be managed by the means of Lean Construction principles.

	==Overview==		==Overview==
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	* ''Risk event'', as something given due to the underlying state of affairs		* ''Risk event'', as something given due to the underlying state of affairs

	When the needs of the owner and occupants of a building are not met, a risk event can be created from the design phase. In addition, modifying these ~~need~~ during the project, or having a weak communication between the parts, can create the risk event.		When the needs of the owner and occupants of a building are not met, a risk event can be created from the design phase. In addition, modifying these needs during the project, or having a weak communication between the parts, can create the risk event.

	In risk situations, there are parameters controlled by probability, known by the decision maker<ref> ''Uncertainty analysis in construction project’s appraisal phase, Ustinovičius, D. Migilinskas, J. Tamošaitienė, E.K. Zavadskas, n.d.'' </ref>. However, in uncertainty situations, parameters are uncertain and no information about probabilities is known. It is clear that construction management organizations do not have precise information, especially when making long-term planning. But it is possible to determine some parameters from experience or statistical data.		In risk situations, there are parameters controlled by probability, known by the decision maker<ref> ''Uncertainty analysis in construction project’s appraisal phase, Ustinovičius, D. Migilinskas, J. Tamošaitienė, E.K. Zavadskas, n.d.'' </ref>. However, in uncertainty situations, parameters are uncertain and no information about probabilities is known. It is clear that construction management organizations do not have precise information, especially when making long-term planning. But it is possible to determine some parameters from experience or statistical data.

	The uniqueness of a construction project leads to a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, project managers must lean on risk management to identify, ~~analyse~~, monitor and report risks. The project risk management uses four basic concepts to help identify the type of risk:		The uniqueness of a construction project leads to a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, project managers must lean on risk management to identify, analyze, monitor and report risks. The project risk management uses four basic concepts to help identify the type of risk:
	[[File:knowns diagram.jpg\|400px\|thumb\|right\|Figure 2: Knowns and unknowns diagram]]		[[File:knowns diagram.jpg\|400px\|thumb\|right\|Figure 2: Knowns and unknowns diagram]]

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	===Lean Construction===		===Lean Construction===

	Lean Construction can be defined as the adaptation of the principles of Lean Production to fit the needs of a construction project. The value is set by the client, and this value consists in the needs, wishes and demands. In order to maximize the values, it is necessary to deliver a product that ~~fulfils~~ the customer expectations at the proper time and quality. Lean Construction is able to achieve this by reducing the waste, this means, to eliminate all that is not relevant for the client’s values. Reducing waste is reducing waste of time, waste in not delivering what the customer wanted, waste in overproduction, ~~etc~~.<ref> ''Jakob Lemming, Lecture 3: "Lean Construction" from 42286 Planning and Management in Construction, 2015'' </ref>		Lean Construction can be defined as the adaptation of the principles of Lean Production to fit the needs of a construction project. The value is set by the client, and this value consists of the needs, wishes and demands. In order to maximize the values, it is necessary to deliver a product that fulfills the customer expectations at the proper time and quality. Lean Construction is able to achieve this by reducing the waste; this means, to eliminate all that is not relevant for the client’s values. Reducing waste is reducing waste of time, waste in not delivering what the customer wanted or waste in overproduction, among others.<ref> ''Jakob Lemming, Lecture 3: "Lean Construction" from 42286 Planning and Management in Construction, 2015'' </ref>

	But to fulfill this waste reduction, the industry of construction has been developing different ideas or processes, continuously trying to find the best solution. In this approach three important tools to assess planning and risk management are analyzed:		But to fulfill this waste reduction, the industry of construction has been developing different ideas or processes, continuously trying to find the best solution. In this approach three important tools to assess planning and risk management are analyzed:

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	* Location-Based Scheduling.		* Location-Based Scheduling.

	==Methods ~~for minimizing~~ risks and uncertainties in construction projects==		==Methods to minimize risks and uncertainties in construction projects==

	===Transformation, Flow and Value===		===Transformation, Flow and Value===
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	The method consists in dividing the construction process into three levels: phase, look-ahead and weekly work plan. This is done to provide an even workflow which enables the prediction of durability of the activities.		The method consists in dividing the construction process into three levels: phase, look-ahead and weekly work plan. This is done to provide an even workflow which enables the prediction of durability of the activities.

	Firstly, a phase schedule is created, containing the overall construction project with the corresponding deadlines. Then, each representative is required to create a look-ahead schedule to clarify how the activities in the phase schedule should be done. Finally, weekly work plans are created during weekly meetings with the representatives, ~~in which~~ agreements are done about what to do on that week.		Firstly, a phase schedule is created, containing the overall construction project with the corresponding deadlines. Then, each representative is required to create a look-ahead schedule to clarify how the activities in the phase schedule should be done. Finally, weekly work plans are created during weekly meetings with the representatives. In these meetings, agreements are done about what to do on that week.

	The LPS produces predictable workflow and rapid learning <ref> ''Recommended practices for the application of Lean Construction methods to building new australian LNG capacity, Engineers Australia, Western Australia Division, 2012'' </ref>. This creates the maximum value to the owner by eliminating waste caused by unpredictable workflow. It enables contractors to reduce the delivery time of the project and creates commitments among project participants.		The LPS produces predictable workflow and rapid learning <ref> ''Recommended practices for the application of Lean Construction methods to building new australian LNG capacity, Engineers Australia, Western Australia Division, 2012'' </ref>. This creates the maximum value for the owner by eliminating waste caused by unpredictable workflow. Moreover, it enables contractors to reduce the delivery time of the project and creates commitments among project participants.

	But even with the situation ~~where~~ the schedule makes the weekly work plans ~~superfluous~~, there is another aspect to consider when the foremen are doing the planning on site: the weekly meetings are also oriented to commitment and trust among the parties<ref> ''Building Information Modelling (BIM) in Design Detailing with focus on Interior Wall Systems, Janni Tjell, 2010'' </ref>. This is achieved by letting the workers do the planning and adjust their own management to the overall project <ref> ''Rolf Simonsen, Lecture 4: "Last Planner System" from 42286 Planning and Management in Construction, 2015'' </ref>. This way, an open and easy way to communicate is created.		But even with the situation in which the schedule makes the weekly work plans efficient, there is another aspect to consider when the foremen are doing the planning on site: the weekly meetings are also oriented to commitment and trust among the parties<ref> ''Building Information Modelling (BIM) in Design Detailing with focus on Interior Wall Systems, Janni Tjell, 2010'' </ref>. This is achieved by letting the workers do the planning and adjust their own management to the overall project <ref> ''Rolf Simonsen, Lecture 4: "Last Planner System" from 42286 Planning and Management in Construction, 2015'' </ref>. This way, an open and easy way to communicate is created.

	In the Figure 3, the information flow and LPS process are shown. Regarding the concept of the 7 flows, which is part of this figure, it is used to represent the conditions that must be analyzed and met in order to perform an activity in a construction project:		In the Figure 3, the information flow and LPS process are shown. Regarding the concept of the 7 flows, which is part of this figure, it is used to represent the conditions that must be analyzed and met in order to perform an activity in a construction project: