Optimism bias in teams - Revision history

S195765 at 18:36, 8 May 2023

2023-05-08T18:36:07Z

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	~~new title?: Understanding, identifying and handling optimism bias~~
	~~or : The Impact of Optimism Bias on Project Success: Unraveling the Challenges and Solutions~~
	~~or : Optimism Bias in Project Management: Understanding its Impact on Success and Strategies for Mitigation~~
	~~, Optimism bias mitigation in teams~~
	~~Or Optimism bias in teams, understanding biases, challenges and mitigation methods~~
	~~Or : Optimism bias, mitigation in teams and projects~~


	==Abstract==		==Abstract==

	The purpose of this wiki-article is to describe different behavioural patterns and tendencies that can ~~occurs~~ in teams due to cognitive ~~bias~~, especially in regard to optimises bias and how managers/ project managers can recognise and tackle cognitive biases. It will be uncovered that optimism bias is important to tackle, as it can lead individuals and/or teams to unrealistic expectations, which can have a negative impact on team dynamics and coordination. Though in some situations optimistic bias can also in some situations have positive effects, such as increasing morale and motivation. Optimism biases are usually found in smaller teams.		The purpose of this wiki-article is to describe, optimism bias mitigation in teams and projects, through different behavioural patterns and tendencies that can occur in teams due to cognitive biases, especially in regard to optimises bias and how managers/ project managers can recognise and tackle cognitive biases. It will be uncovered that optimism bias is important to tackle, as it can lead individuals and/or teams to unrealistic expectations, which can have a negative impact on team dynamics and coordination. Though in some situations optimistic bias can also in some situations have positive effects, such as increasing morale and motivation. Optimism biases are usually found in smaller teams.

	There are several methods that project managers can use to effectively manage optimistic bias in teams. By understanding and addressing optimism bias, while valuing employees and promoting a supportive and trusting environment, project managers can enhance team performance, productivity, and ultimately, the success of the project, without being overly optimistic.		There are several methods that project managers can use to effectively manage optimistic bias in teams. By understanding and addressing optimism bias, while valuing employees and promoting a supportive and trusting environment, project managers can enhance team performance, productivity, and ultimately, the success of the project, without being overly optimistic.

S195765: /* How to handle and recognize optimism bias in teams */

2023-05-08T18:26:55Z

How to handle and recognize optimism bias in teams

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	== How to ~~handle~~ and recognize optimism bias in teams ==		== How to prevent and recognize optimism bias in teams ==


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	Lastly, there is the 'premortem approach' where the team can look at a failed project move backwards and see what went wrong, this will educate the project teams in regards to short-sighted overconfidence as well as relay the effects of optimism bias. <ref name="Kahneman"/>		Lastly, there is the 'premortem approach' where the team can look at a failed project move backwards and see what went wrong, this will educate the project teams in regards to short-sighted overconfidence as well as relay the effects of optimism bias. <ref name="Kahneman"/>


	=References=		=References=

S195765 at 18:24, 8 May 2023

2023-05-08T18:24:54Z

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	, Optimism bias mitigation in teams		, Optimism bias mitigation in teams
	Or Optimism bias in teams, understanding biases, challenges and mitigation methods		Or Optimism bias in teams, understanding biases, challenges and mitigation methods
			Or : Optimism bias, mitigation in teams and projects

S195765 at 18:21, 8 May 2023

2023-05-08T18:21:40Z

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	== How to handle and recognize optimism bias in teams ==		== How to handle and recognize optimism bias in teams ==


	====Transparency and mitigation====		====Transparency and mitigation====

	You need to have transparency and authority within our team. If you don't have transparency or don't know how to change or have authority over your team, then practice your people skills. <ref name="James P"/> Here you can look at the different biases you should aim to avoid, as transparency can help to prevent biases in our team. Transparency helps to combat different biases in our teams, which could lead to an overly optimistic teams. <ref name="~~Bent~~"/>		You need to have transparency and authority within our team. If you don't have transparency or don't know how to change or have authority over your team, then practice your people skills. <ref name="James P"/> Here you can look at the different biases you should aim to avoid, as transparency can help to prevent biases in our team. Transparency helps to combat different biases in our teams, which could lead to an overly optimistic team. <ref name="Bent"/>


			====Appoint a leader ====

			- Appoint an optimistic leader, to increase team welfare

			An important aspect to consider is appointing a leader who can influence by example and guide the efforts of their followers. In a study conducted by Jian Wang, involving both rational and optimistic agents, it was found that both types of agents tend to be more productive when led by an optimistic leader rather than a rational one. Additionally, introducing leadership into teams helps mitigate the free-rider problem and enhances team welfare. However, it is crucial to select the right kind of leader, as choosing E.g a rational agent as a group leader can negatively impact the productivity of optimistic agents. Conversely, when an optimistic agent assumes the leadership role, it results in increased team welfare and productivity. <ref name="Jian"/>


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	Which can conclude that optimism bias, can be identified through moral hazards and identifying overly optimistic agents. <ref name="Jian"/>		Which can conclude that optimism bias, can be identified through moral hazards and identifying overly optimistic agents. <ref name="Jian"/>


	~~====Appoint a leader ====~~

	~~- Appoint an optimistic leader, to increase team welfare~~

	An important aspect to consider is appointing a leader who can influence by example and guide the efforts of their followers. In a study conducted by Jian Wang, involving both rational and optimistic agents, it was found that both types of agents tend to be more productive when led by an optimistic leader rather than a rational one. Additionally, introducing leadership into teams helps mitigate the free-rider problem and enhances team welfare. However, it is crucial to select the right kind of leader, as choosing E.g a rational agent as a group leader can negatively impact the productivity of optimistic agents. Conversely, when an optimistic agent assumes the leadership role, it results in increased team welfare and productivity. <ref name="Jian"/>

S195765 at 18:15, 8 May 2023

2023-05-08T18:15:26Z

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	==== Identify though moral hazards, e.g. Free-riding ====		==== Identify though moral hazards, e.g. Free-riding ====

	A sign of ~~ones~~ team being overly optimistic can be for some of them to "slack off". This ~~behavior lead~~ others to be ~~effected~~, as they scale back on effort when some agent is optimistic in team.		A sign of one's team being overly optimistic can be for some of them to "slack off". This behaviour leads others to be affected, as they scale back on effort when some agent is optimistic in the team.

	"… some agent’s optimism bias makes the whole team inefficient to some extent, and that teams staffed with some optimistic agents tend to underperform those without." <ref name="Jian"/>		"… some agent’s optimism bias makes the whole team inefficient to some extent, and that teams staffed with some optimistic agents tend to underperform those without." <ref name="Jian"/>

	Which can conclude that optimism bias, can be identified ~~though~~ moral hazards and identifying overly optimistic agents. <ref name="Jian"/>		Which can conclude that optimism bias, can be identified through moral hazards and identifying overly optimistic agents. <ref name="Jian"/>

S195765 at 17:57, 8 May 2023

2023-05-08T17:57:59Z

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	A sign of ones team being overly optimistic can be for some of them to "slack off". This behavior lead others to be effected, as they scale back on effort when some agent is optimistic in team.		A sign of ones team being overly optimistic can be for some of them to "slack off". This behavior lead others to be effected, as they scale back on effort when some agent is optimistic in team.

	"… some agent’s optimism bias makes the whole team inefficient to some extent, and that teams staffed with some optimistic agents tend to underperform those without."		"… some agent’s optimism bias makes the whole team inefficient to some extent, and that teams staffed with some optimistic agents tend to underperform those without." <ref name="Jian"/>

	Which can conclude that optimism bias, can be identified though moral hazards and identifying overly optimistic agents. <ref name="Jian"/>		Which can conclude that optimism bias, can be identified though moral hazards and identifying overly optimistic agents. <ref name="Jian"/>

S195765 at 14:18, 8 May 2023

2023-05-08T14:18:46Z

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	Matching leadership styles with the team, you can read more about situational leaders ship, which goes into depth about why PM needs to be flexible to be able to keep up with the continuous change in their teams. http://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php/Situational_leadership_-_Hersey_and_Blanchard.		Matching leadership styles with the team, you can read more about situational leaders ship, which goes into depth about why PM needs to be flexible to be able to keep up with the continuous change in their teams. http://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php/Situational_leadership_-_Hersey_and_Blanchard.

	Lobby formation, ~~(mention~~ Belbin)		Lobby size and formation also have an important on the welfare of the team and in the end, the project. <ref name="Bang"/> There is also the possibility to look at different Belbin personality types when identifying behavioural strengths and weaknesses in the teams.


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	Lastly, there is the 'premortem approach' where the team can look at a failed project move backwards and see what went wrong, this will educate the project teams in regards to short-sighted overconfidence as well as relay the effects of optimism bias. <ref name="Kahneman"/>		Lastly, there is the 'premortem approach' where the team can look at a failed project move backwards and see what went wrong, this will educate the project teams in regards to short-sighted overconfidence as well as relay the effects of optimism bias. <ref name="Kahneman"/>


	~~==Annotated bibliography==~~


	~~'''Bent'''~~


	~~'''Daniel Kahnemann: 'Thinking fast and slow''''~~

S195765 at 14:06, 8 May 2023

2023-05-08T14:06:18Z

Show changes

S195765 at 11:07, 8 May 2023

2023-05-08T11:07:52Z

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	"		"
	* “Identify an appropriate reference class” – Look for a general category to put your task in and use it as a reflection and comparison point.		* “Identify an appropriate reference class” – Look for a general category to put your task in and use it as a reflection and comparison point. ...

	* “Obtain statistics for this reference class” – Look for statistics on how long it takes to complete the type of task on average. These are your “base rates”.		* “Obtain statistics for this reference class” – Look for statistics on how long it takes to complete the type of task on average. These are your “base rates”.
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	~~Also using "~~designated drivers~~" - involve those~~ who ~~won't either benefit or lose from the decision to review your assessment of~~ the ~~situation before finalizing a decision~~. ~~As well as~~ establishing control-limits and ~~obeying~~ them~~, here earned~~ value metrics are ~~just~~ one type of tool ~~which~~ can be useful~~, to help overcome bias~~ in ~~regards to fission making~~, ~~as long as~~ the underlying data is ~~sound~~. <ref name="Kahneman~~"/> <ref name="Kiron~~"/>		Another way to mitigate bias in decision-making, is to seek input from impartial parties, such as designated drivers, who have no personal stake in the outcome. Additionally, establishing control-limits and adhering to them can help to reduce the influence of subjective biases. Earned value metrics are one type of tool that can be useful in this regard, provided that the underlying data is accurate and reliable. <ref name="Kahneman"/>


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	Bent		'''Bent'''


	~~Jian~~		'''Daniel Kahnemann: 'Thinking fast and slow''''


	~~Kahneman~~


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	<ref name="WEB2"> Why do we overestimate the probability of success? The Optimism Bias, explained. Thedecisionlab, </ref>		<ref name="WEB2"> Why do we overestimate the probability of success? The Optimism Bias, explained. Thedecisionlab, </ref>


	~~<ref name="Kiron"> Overcoming Optimism Bias In Project Decision Making, by Kiron Bondale on September 2, 2014. Posted in Articles. </ref>~~

S195765 at 10:46, 8 May 2023

2023-05-08T10:46:49Z

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	A team is defined as; “A teams puts their efforts towards reaching a common goal.” <ref name="DSISO 21502 2020"/>		A team is defined as; “A teams puts their efforts towards reaching a common goal.” <ref name="DSISO 21502 2020"/>

	Team management plays a vital role in project leadership as it ensures coordination, collaboration, and the efficient execution of tasks. Effective team management fosters a cohesive working environment, encourages open communication, and maximizes overall productivity. By establishing clear roles and responsibilities, providing necessary support, and addressing any conflicts or challenges that arise, managers create an environment where teams can thrive and perform at their best. This is important as well as being able to build trust among team members and establishing trust in the project leader is crucial for effective team management. Trust enhances collaboration, encourages open dialogue, and creates a supportive atmosphere where individuals feel comfortable expressing their opinions and contributing their expertise. This fosters a sense of psychological safety within the team, leading to improved communication, innovation, and a higher likelihood of achieving project goals. which is why leaders need both technical skills and non-technical skills. <ref name="~~WEB~~"/>		Team management plays a vital role in project leadership as it ensures coordination, collaboration, and the efficient execution of tasks. Effective team management fosters a cohesive working environment, encourages open communication, and maximizes overall productivity. By establishing clear roles and responsibilities, providing necessary support, and addressing any conflicts or challenges that arise, managers create an environment where teams can thrive and perform at their best. This is important as well as being able to build trust among team members and establishing trust in the project leader is crucial for effective team management. Trust enhances collaboration, encourages open dialogue, and creates a supportive atmosphere where individuals feel comfortable expressing their opinions and contributing their expertise. This fosters a sense of psychological safety within the team, leading to improved communication, innovation, and a higher likelihood of achieving project goals. which is why leaders need both technical skills and non-technical skills. <ref name="Bang"/>


	==== Teams and leadership styles ====		==== Teams and leadership styles ====
	There are different types of teams, depending on which teams and what kind of leader you are, also needs to be taken into consideration. ~~<ref name="WEB"/>~~ Here you might need to look into different management and leadership styles. Which refers to the specific approach that managers adopt to achieve their objectives, encompassing decision-making processes, work planning and organization, and the exercise of authority <ref name="CMI"/>. These styles can vary across companies, levels of management, and individuals. A skilled manager has the ability to adapt their management style to different environments and employees. Various factors, such as internal and external business environments, as well as personal perspectives on the role of work in employees' lives, contribute to shaping an individual's management style <ref name="FMG"/>. For more information about this topic about management and different leadership styles you can read the wiki-article; http://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php/The_Difference_Between_Leadership_and_Management.		There are different types of teams, depending on which teams and what kind of leader you are, also needs to be taken into consideration. Here you might need to look into different management and leadership styles. Which refers to the specific approach that managers adopt to achieve their objectives, encompassing decision-making processes, work planning and organization, and the exercise of authority <ref name="CMI"/>. These styles can vary across companies, levels of management, and individuals. A skilled manager has the ability to adapt their management style to different environments and employees. Various factors, such as internal and external business environments, as well as personal perspectives on the role of work in employees' lives, contribute to shaping an individual's management style <ref name="FMG"/>. For more information about this topic about management and different leadership styles you can read the wiki-article; http://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php/The_Difference_Between_Leadership_and_Management.

	Matching leadership styles with the team, you can read more about situational leaders ship, which goes into depth about why PM needs to be flexible to be able to keep up with the continuous change in their teams. http://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php/Situational_leadership_-_Hersey_and_Blanchard.		Matching leadership styles with the team, you can read more about situational leaders ship, which goes into depth about why PM needs to be flexible to be able to keep up with the continuous change in their teams. http://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php/Situational_leadership_-_Hersey_and_Blanchard.