PERT and CPM - Revision history

Mariehoel: /* Abstract */

2023-02-26T20:27:04Z

Abstract

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:27, 26 February 2023
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	PERT visualizes the tasks needed to complete to finish the project. <ref name="Roos, Ernst, et. al.">[''A distributionally robust analysis of the program evaluation and review technique''] ''Roos, Ernst and Hertog, Dick den, 2020, European Journal of Operational Research '' </ref> This can greatly help managers to improve communication, planning and scheduling, identify project stakeholders and improve the execution of the project. PERT is an extremely flexible tools which can be tailored to help the project managers with their specific need, for them to best deliver on their goal or project. This article will provide a guide for project managers to implement PERT when tackling complex projects and a thought example of a project where PERT and CPM is applied to estimate the duration.		PERT visualizes the tasks needed to complete to finish the project. <ref name="Roos, Ernst, et. al.">[''A distributionally robust analysis of the program evaluation and review technique''] ''Roos, Ernst and Hertog, Dick den, 2020, European Journal of Operational Research '' </ref> This can greatly help managers to improve communication, planning and scheduling, identify project stakeholders and improve the execution of the project. PERT is an extremely flexible tools which can be tailored to help the project managers with their specific need, for them to best deliver on their goal or project. This article will provide a guide for project managers to implement PERT when tackling complex projects and a thought example of a project where PERT and CPM is applied to estimate the duration.
	__TOC__		__TOC__

	== Big Idea ==		== Big Idea ==

S183645 at 17:28, 19 February 2023

2023-02-19T17:28:47Z

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	*'''Lack of near critical-path inclusion''' <br />PERT and the CPM method does takes only the critical path into account. Meaning that near critical paths, which are not inconsequential to the project are left out<ref name="Wayne D., 1999" />. If these path were to become significant or critical in a project, it could catch project mangers of guard and lead to further delays in the project. This problem is exaggerated for each parallel task in the network diagram<ref name="Wayne D., 1999" />.		*'''Lack of near critical-path inclusion''' <br />PERT and the CPM method does takes only the critical path into account. Meaning that near critical paths, which are not inconsequential to the project are left out<ref name="Wayne D., 1999" />. If these path were to become significant or critical in a project, it could catch project mangers of guard and lead to further delays in the project. This problem is exaggerated for each parallel task in the network diagram<ref name="Wayne D., 1999" />.

			== Annotated bibliography ==

			'''SIMPLIFIED PROGRAM EVALUATION AND REVIEW TECHNIQUE (PERT)''' Cottrell, Wayne D., 1999, JOURNAL OF CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
			::- ''This article provides an simplified version of PERT and uses a normal distribution instead of the normal beta-distribution.''


			'''A distributionally robust analysis of the program evaluation and review technique''' Roos, Ernst and Hertog, Dick den, 2020, European Journal of Operational Research
			::- ''This article goes in depth with the math used within the PERT method, as well as trying to provide a better method to calculate the statistics ''

			'''Optimization Tools for Logistics''' Réveillac, Jean-Michel, (2015), “Optimization Tools for Logistics”, iste press
			::- ''This article dives deeper into PERT in combination with CPM. THe author explains how to use the methods and provides examples''

	== References ==		== References ==

	<references />		<references />

S183645 at 17:05, 19 February 2023

2023-02-19T17:05:08Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:05, 19 February 2023
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	PERT visualizes the tasks needed to complete to finish the project. <ref name="Roos, Ernst, et. al.">[''A distributionally robust analysis of the program evaluation and review technique''] ''Roos, Ernst and Hertog, Dick den, 2020, European Journal of Operational Research '' </ref> This can greatly help managers to improve communication, planning and scheduling, identify project stakeholders and improve the execution of the project. PERT is an extremely flexible tools which can be tailored to help the project managers with their specific need, for them to best deliver on their goal or project. This article will provide a guide for project managers to implement PERT when tackling complex projects and a thought example of a project where PERT and CPM is applied to estimate the duration.		PERT visualizes the tasks needed to complete to finish the project. <ref name="Roos, Ernst, et. al.">[''A distributionally robust analysis of the program evaluation and review technique''] ''Roos, Ernst and Hertog, Dick den, 2020, European Journal of Operational Research '' </ref> This can greatly help managers to improve communication, planning and scheduling, identify project stakeholders and improve the execution of the project. PERT is an extremely flexible tools which can be tailored to help the project managers with their specific need, for them to best deliver on their goal or project. This article will provide a guide for project managers to implement PERT when tackling complex projects and a thought example of a project where PERT and CPM is applied to estimate the duration.
			__TOC__
	== Big Idea ==		== Big Idea ==

S183645: /* Identify tasks */

2023-02-19T17:03:16Z

Identify tasks

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:03, 19 February 2023
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	With the tasks numbered and the predecessors and successors determined, a network diagram can now be drawn to show the connections and dependencies of the tasks. Here the network diagram will include the tasks names, one could include both the name and number for a more visual representation of the project.		With the tasks numbered and the predecessors and successors determined, a network diagram can now be drawn to show the connections and dependencies of the tasks. Here the network diagram will include the tasks names, one could include both the name and number for a more visual representation of the project.

	[[File:Network_diagram2.png\|border\|800px\|PERT Network Diagram \| thumb \| Network diagram with task names]]		[[File:Network_diagram2.png\|border\|800px\|PERT Network Diagram \|center \| thumb \| Network diagram with task names]]

	=== Estimation and calculation of task durations ===		=== Estimation and calculation of task durations ===

S183645: /* Identification of the critical path */

2023-02-19T17:02:59Z

Identification of the critical path

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:02, 19 February 2023
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	To help visualize the critical path, the network diagram is redrawn with the mean time of each task. The critical path is determined by summing the task and the highest path from start to finish is the critical path. On the figure the critical path is highlighted by red arrows.		To help visualize the critical path, the network diagram is redrawn with the mean time of each task. The critical path is determined by summing the task and the highest path from start to finish is the critical path. On the figure the critical path is highlighted by red arrows.

	[[File:Network_diagram3.png\|border\|800px\|PERT Network Diagram \| thumb \| Critical path of thought example]]		[[File:Network_diagram3.png\|border\|800px\|PERT Network Diagram \|center \| thumb \| Critical path of thought example]]

	The most time consuming path throughout the network diagram is summarized to be 57 working days and involves primarily the chassis. Thus, reveling that the chassis in this specific imaginary project is a potential focus for the project manager. The project manager is given the duration estimation of the entire project to be 57 days.		The most time consuming path throughout the network diagram is summarized to be 57 working days and involves primarily the chassis. Thus, reveling that the chassis in this specific imaginary project is a potential focus for the project manager. The project manager is given the duration estimation of the entire project to be 57 days.

S183645: /* Identify tasks */

2023-02-19T17:02:05Z

Identify tasks

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:02, 19 February 2023
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	With the tasks numbered and the predecessors and successors determined, a network diagram can now be drawn to show the connections and dependencies of the tasks. Here the network diagram will include the tasks names, one could include both the name and number for a more visual representation of the project.		With the tasks numbered and the predecessors and successors determined, a network diagram can now be drawn to show the connections and dependencies of the tasks. Here the network diagram will include the tasks names, one could include both the name and number for a more visual representation of the project.

	[[File:Network_diagram2.png\|border\|800px\|PERT Network Diagram]]		[[File:Network_diagram2.png\|border\|800px\|PERT Network Diagram \| thumb \| Network diagram with task names]]

	=== Estimation and calculation of task durations ===		=== Estimation and calculation of task durations ===

S183645: /* Building a network diagram */

2023-02-19T17:01:25Z

Building a network diagram

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:01, 19 February 2023
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	With tasks defined and predecessors and successors determined, it now time to build the network diagram of the complex project. It is important that the arrows drawn follow the direction of the order of which the tasks are done. It is important to be vary of tasks which can be done parallel or if a certain task needs to finish before the next can start <ref name="Réveillac, Jean-Michel, 2015" />. In the table shown, tasks 2 and 3 are parallel tasks as these can be performed simultaneously by the team. Whereas task 0 needs to be done for task 1 to start.		With tasks defined and predecessors and successors determined, it now time to build the network diagram of the complex project. It is important that the arrows drawn follow the direction of the order of which the tasks are done. It is important to be vary of tasks which can be done parallel or if a certain task needs to finish before the next can start <ref name="Réveillac, Jean-Michel, 2015" />. In the table shown, tasks 2 and 3 are parallel tasks as these can be performed simultaneously by the team. Whereas task 0 needs to be done for task 1 to start.

	[[File:Network_diagram1.png\|right\|border\|400px\|PERT Network Diagram]]		[[File:Network_diagram1.png\|right\|border\|400px\|PERT Network Diagram \|thumb \| Network diagram]]

	=== Estimation and calculation of tasks durations ===		=== Estimation and calculation of tasks durations ===

S183645: /* Identification of the critical path */

2023-02-19T16:59:55Z

Identification of the critical path

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:59, 19 February 2023
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	To help visualize the critical path, the network diagram is redrawn with the mean time of each task. The critical path is determined by summing the task and the highest path from start to finish is the critical path. On the figure the critical path is highlighted by red arrows.		To help visualize the critical path, the network diagram is redrawn with the mean time of each task. The critical path is determined by summing the task and the highest path from start to finish is the critical path. On the figure the critical path is highlighted by red arrows.

	[[File:Network_diagram3.png\|border\|800px\|PERT Network Diagram]]		[[File:Network_diagram3.png\|border\|800px\|PERT Network Diagram \| thumb \| Critical path of thought example]]

	The most time consuming path throughout the network diagram is summarized to be 57 working days and involves primarily the chassis. Thus, reveling that the chassis in this specific imaginary project is a potential focus for the project manager. The project manager is given the duration estimation of the entire project to be 57 days.		The most time consuming path throughout the network diagram is summarized to be 57 working days and involves primarily the chassis. Thus, reveling that the chassis in this specific imaginary project is a potential focus for the project manager. The project manager is given the duration estimation of the entire project to be 57 days.
	It is possible for the project manager to use the standard deviation and variance to get an percentage chance of the deviation from the total estimated time. By summing the variance of the tasks on the critical path, the standard deviation from the summed variance can be calculated. In this instance it comes out to be 5.4 working days. Thus, the project manager knows the chance of finishing the project within one standard deviation (51.6 to 62.4 days) is 68%. The probability within two standard deviations is 95%.		It is possible for the project manager to use the standard deviation and variance to get an percentage chance of the deviation from the total estimated time. By summing the variance of the tasks on the critical path, the standard deviation from the summed variance can be calculated. In this instance it comes out to be 5.4 working days. Thus, the project manager knows the chance of finishing the project within one standard deviation (51.6 to 62.4 days) is 68%. The probability within two standard deviations is 95%.

	=== Risk management ===		=== Risk management ===

S183645 at 16:56, 19 February 2023

2023-02-19T16:56:04Z

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S183645 at 16:18, 19 February 2023

2023-02-19T16:18:36Z

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