Scenario Planning Strategy - Revision history

Tkokotas at 13:02, 23 November 2018

2018-11-23T13:02:43Z

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	:'''3. Paul J. H. Schoemaker (1991) "When and how to use scenario planning: a heuristic approach with illustrations"		:'''3. Paul J. H. Schoemaker (1991) "When and how to use scenario planning: a heuristic approach with illustrations"
	::<u>Summary:</u> The paper analyzes scenario planning in a managerial aspect. It is compared with the traditional techniques in terms of addressing hight uncertainty. In addition, scenario planning and its liaison with decision making is investigated while suggestions of tools for using it in strategic and operational level are made.		::<u>Summary:</u> The paper analyzes scenario planning in a managerial aspect. It is compared with the traditional techniques in terms of addressing hight uncertainty. In addition, scenario planning and its liaison with decision making is investigated while suggestions of tools for using it in strategic and operational level are made.

			[[Category:Project Management]][[Category:Uncertaity]][[Category:Risk]][[Category:Planning‏‎]][[Category:Strategic Management‏‎]]

Tkokotas at 18:42, 17 November 2018

2018-11-17T18:42:35Z

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			''Developed by Alexandra Darmaraki''


	'''Scenario Planning Strategy''' is a systematic and methodical way for organizations to define their future actions. It is considered as part of the <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_management Strategic management]</span> tools, aiming to create a flexible plan, based on which the organization will benefit in the long term. Scenario planning came to change and enhance the way of thinking in terms of <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision-making decision making]</span> under critical uncertain circumstances. According to Pierre Wack "''Scenarios deal with two worlds; the world of facts and the world of perceptions''" <ref name="econo">.The Economist, "''Scenario planning''". Online article [URL: http://www.economist.com/node/12000755] Retrieved on 15 October 2017</ref>. The known and the unknown are mixed and a set of different possible scenarios for a particular issue is formed following people's both subjective and objective thoughts regarding how the social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) trends are going to affect it.		'''Scenario Planning Strategy''' is a systematic and methodical way for organizations to define their future actions. It is considered as part of the <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_management Strategic management]</span> tools, aiming to create a flexible plan, based on which the organization will benefit in the long term. Scenario planning came to change and enhance the way of thinking in terms of <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision-making decision making]</span> under critical uncertain circumstances. According to Pierre Wack "''Scenarios deal with two worlds; the world of facts and the world of perceptions''" <ref name="econo">.The Economist, "''Scenario planning''". Online article [URL: http://www.economist.com/node/12000755] Retrieved on 15 October 2017</ref>. The known and the unknown are mixed and a set of different possible scenarios for a particular issue is formed following people's both subjective and objective thoughts regarding how the social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) trends are going to affect it.
	The holistic integrated pictures of the future assist companies to both quantify and qualify their future policies and strategies creating an adaptable planning that mitigates the possible negative impacts on them.		The holistic integrated pictures of the future assist companies to both quantify and qualify their future policies and strategies creating an adaptable planning that mitigates the possible negative impacts on them.

Nikoletta at 17:25, 25 February 2018

2018-02-25T17:25:23Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:25, 25 February 2018
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	'''Scenario Planning Strategy''' is a systematic and methodical way for organizations to define their future actions. It is considered as part of the <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_management/ Strategic management]</span> tools, aiming to create a flexible plan, based on which the organization will benefit in the long term. Scenario planning came to change and enhance the way of thinking in terms of <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision-making decision making]</span> under critical uncertain circumstances. According to Pierre Wack "''Scenarios deal with two worlds; the world of facts and the world of perceptions''" <ref name="econo">.The Economist, "''Scenario planning''". Online article [URL: http://www.economist.com/node/12000755] Retrieved on 15 October 2017</ref>. The known and the unknown are mixed and a set of different possible scenarios for a particular issue is formed following people's both subjective and objective thoughts regarding how the social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) trends are going to affect it.		'''Scenario Planning Strategy''' is a systematic and methodical way for organizations to define their future actions. It is considered as part of the <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_management Strategic management]</span> tools, aiming to create a flexible plan, based on which the organization will benefit in the long term. Scenario planning came to change and enhance the way of thinking in terms of <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision-making decision making]</span> under critical uncertain circumstances. According to Pierre Wack "''Scenarios deal with two worlds; the world of facts and the world of perceptions''" <ref name="econo">.The Economist, "''Scenario planning''". Online article [URL: http://www.economist.com/node/12000755] Retrieved on 15 October 2017</ref>. The known and the unknown are mixed and a set of different possible scenarios for a particular issue is formed following people's both subjective and objective thoughts regarding how the social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) trends are going to affect it.
	The holistic integrated pictures of the future assist companies to both quantify and qualify their future policies and strategies creating an adaptable planning that mitigates the possible negative impacts on them.		The holistic integrated pictures of the future assist companies to both quantify and qualify their future policies and strategies creating an adaptable planning that mitigates the possible negative impacts on them.

Nikoletta at 17:24, 25 February 2018

2018-02-25T17:24:47Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:24, 25 February 2018
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	'''Scenario Planning Strategy''' is a systematic and methodical way for organizations to define their future actions. It is considered as part of the <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_management Strategic management]</span> tools, aiming to create a flexible plan, based on which the organization will benefit in the long term. Scenario planning came to change and enhance the way of thinking in terms of <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision-making decision making]</span> under critical uncertain circumstances. According to Pierre Wack "''Scenarios deal with two worlds; the world of facts and the world of perceptions''" <ref name="econo">.The Economist, "''Scenario planning''". Online article [URL: http://www.economist.com/node/12000755] Retrieved on 15 October 2017</ref>. The known and the unknown are mixed and a set of different possible scenarios for a particular issue is formed following people's both subjective and objective thoughts regarding how the social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) trends are going to affect it.		'''Scenario Planning Strategy''' is a systematic and methodical way for organizations to define their future actions. It is considered as part of the <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_management/ Strategic management]</span> tools, aiming to create a flexible plan, based on which the organization will benefit in the long term. Scenario planning came to change and enhance the way of thinking in terms of <span class="plainlinks">[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision-making decision making]</span> under critical uncertain circumstances. According to Pierre Wack "''Scenarios deal with two worlds; the world of facts and the world of perceptions''" <ref name="econo">.The Economist, "''Scenario planning''". Online article [URL: http://www.economist.com/node/12000755] Retrieved on 15 October 2017</ref>. The known and the unknown are mixed and a set of different possible scenarios for a particular issue is formed following people's both subjective and objective thoughts regarding how the social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) trends are going to affect it.
	The holistic integrated pictures of the future assist companies to both quantify and qualify their future policies and strategies creating an adaptable planning that mitigates the possible negative impacts on them.		The holistic integrated pictures of the future assist companies to both quantify and qualify their future policies and strategies creating an adaptable planning that mitigates the possible negative impacts on them.

Alexandra Darmaraki: /* Annotated bibliography */

2017-10-02T19:36:30Z

Annotated bibliography

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	:'''3. Paul J. H. Schoemaker (1991) "When and how to use scenario planning: a heuristic approach with illustrations"		:'''3. Paul J. H. Schoemaker (1991) "When and how to use scenario planning: a heuristic approach with illustrations"
	::<u>Summary:</u>		::<u>Summary:</u> The paper analyzes scenario planning in a managerial aspect. It is compared with the traditional techniques in terms of addressing hight uncertainty. In addition, scenario planning and its liaison with decision making is investigated while suggestions of tools for using it in strategic and operational level are made.

Alexandra Darmaraki: /* Annotated bibliography */

2017-10-02T19:27:13Z

Annotated bibliography

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:27, 2 October 2017
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	::<u>Summary:</u> The paper investigates the utilization of scenario planning in project portfolio management. Going through the key principles of scenario planning, including guidance for developing scenarios and possible issues and problems that may arise.		::<u>Summary:</u> The paper investigates the utilization of scenario planning in project portfolio management. Going through the key principles of scenario planning, including guidance for developing scenarios and possible issues and problems that may arise.

	:'''3. ~~Roubelat F~~. (~~1999~~) "~~Scenario Planning as~~ a ~~Networking Process~~"		:'''3. Paul J. H. Schoemaker (1991) "When and how to use scenario planning: a heuristic approach with illustrations"
	::<u>Summary:</u>		::<u>Summary:</u>

Alexandra Darmaraki: /* Annotated bibliography */

2017-10-02T19:22:15Z

Annotated bibliography

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:22, 2 October 2017
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	:'''2. Dye, L. D. (2002) "Using scenario planning as an aid in project portfolio management" Paper presented at Project Management Institute Annual Seminars & Symposium, San Antonio, TX. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute		:'''2. Dye, L. D. (2002) "Using scenario planning as an aid in project portfolio management" Paper presented at Project Management Institute Annual Seminars & Symposium, San Antonio, TX. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute
	::<u>Summary:</u> The paper investigates the utilization of scenario planning in project portfolio management. Going through the key principles of scenario planning, including		::<u>Summary:</u> The paper investigates the utilization of scenario planning in project portfolio management. Going through the key principles of scenario planning, including guidance for developing scenarios and possible issues and problems that may arise.

	:'''3. Roubelat F. (1999) "Scenario Planning as a Networking Process"		:'''3. Roubelat F. (1999) "Scenario Planning as a Networking Process"
	::<u>Summary:</u>		::<u>Summary:</u>

Alexandra Darmaraki: /* Limitations */

2017-10-02T19:11:39Z

Limitations

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	Evaluation of scenario planning as a technique is difficult to be conducted. The implementation of the strategic plan based on the selected scenarios requires a lot of time and even more time is needed for the actual impacts on the organization to come to the front. A sufficient tool for evaluating the credibility and accuracy of the results has not been developed and in practice scenario planning it is mostly used as a tentative tool with only some successful case studies as a reference for practitioners <ref name="adv"></ref>. Further research need to be made in order to standardize the process of scenario planning and evaluate the outcome. At the moment there are several version and techniques that for companies that are not familiar with the concept seems vague and complicating with no explicit boundaries. Developing succesfull and consistent scenarios is a time and resources consuming process <ref name="adv"></ref>. Both the selection of the experts and competent participants demands time and have economic impacts on the organization; taking into consideration that a balance should be preserved in terms of internal and external participants that sufficiently represent the organization. Ensuring that the scenarios will be developed under multidimentional discipline conversation and argues is also proved to be a challenge. In addition, the collected information from the several sources need to be interpreted in the organization's context and framework that again contributes to increasing the required time <ref name="adv"></ref>. A lot of experience and competence requires also to create the possible scenarios without ending up with too many or only with the black and white perspective of the issue.		Evaluation of scenario planning as a technique is difficult to be conducted. The implementation of the strategic plan based on the selected scenarios requires a lot of time and even more time is needed for the actual impacts on the organization to come to the front. A sufficient tool for evaluating the credibility and accuracy of the results has not been developed and in practice scenario planning it is mostly used as a tentative tool with only some successful case studies as a reference for practitioners <ref name="adv"></ref>. Further research need to be made in order to standardize the process of scenario planning and evaluate the outcome. At the moment there are several version and techniques that for companies that are not familiar with the concept seems vague and complicating with no explicit boundaries. Developing succesfull and consistent scenarios is a time and resources consuming process <ref name="adv"></ref>. Both the selection of the experts and competent participants demands time and have economic impacts on the organization; taking into consideration that a balance should be preserved in terms of internal and external participants that sufficiently represent the organization. Ensuring that the scenarios will be developed under multidimentional discipline conversation and argues is also proved to be a challenge. In addition, the collected information from the several sources need to be interpreted in the organization's context and framework that again contributes to increasing the required time <ref name="adv"></ref>. A lot of experience and competence requires also to create the possible scenarios without ending up with too many or only with the black and white perspective of the issue.

	Finally, a common misunderstanding stems from the fact that people do not clearly comprehend that scenarios are neither accurate predictions of the future or can be used as a crystal ball. Scenarios are just different assumptions of how the future may involved. Future is unpredictable, which means that the probability for the strategy to lead to wrong paths and decisions ~~can be~~ high.		Finally, a common misunderstanding stems from the fact that people do not clearly comprehend that scenarios are neither accurate predictions of the future or can be used as a crystal ball. Scenarios are just different assumptions of how the future may involved. Future is unpredictable, which means that the probability for the strategy to lead to wrong paths and decisions is high.

	= References =		= References =

Alexandra Darmaraki: /* Limitations */

2017-10-02T19:11:03Z

Limitations

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:11, 2 October 2017
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	Evaluation of scenario planning as a technique is difficult to be conducted. The implementation of the strategic plan based on the selected scenarios requires a lot of time and even more time is needed for the actual impacts on the organization to come to the front. A sufficient tool for evaluating the credibility and accuracy of the results has not been developed and in practice scenario planning it is mostly used as a tentative tool with only some successful case studies as a reference for practitioners <ref name="adv"></ref>. Further research need to be made in order to standardize the process of scenario planning and evaluate the outcome. At the moment there are several version and techniques that for companies that are not familiar with the concept seems vague and complicating with no explicit boundaries. Developing succesfull and consistent scenarios is a time and resources consuming process <ref name="adv"></ref>. Both the selection of the experts and competent participants demands time and have economic impacts on the organization; taking into consideration that a balance should be preserved in terms of internal and external participants that sufficiently represent the organization. Ensuring that the scenarios will be developed under multidimentional discipline conversation and argues is also proved to be a challenge. In addition, the collected information from the several sources need to be interpreted in the organization's context and framework that again contributes to increasing the required time <ref name="adv"></ref>. A lot of experience and competence requires also to create the possible scenarios without ending up with too many or only with the black and white perspective of the issue.		Evaluation of scenario planning as a technique is difficult to be conducted. The implementation of the strategic plan based on the selected scenarios requires a lot of time and even more time is needed for the actual impacts on the organization to come to the front. A sufficient tool for evaluating the credibility and accuracy of the results has not been developed and in practice scenario planning it is mostly used as a tentative tool with only some successful case studies as a reference for practitioners <ref name="adv"></ref>. Further research need to be made in order to standardize the process of scenario planning and evaluate the outcome. At the moment there are several version and techniques that for companies that are not familiar with the concept seems vague and complicating with no explicit boundaries. Developing succesfull and consistent scenarios is a time and resources consuming process <ref name="adv"></ref>. Both the selection of the experts and competent participants demands time and have economic impacts on the organization; taking into consideration that a balance should be preserved in terms of internal and external participants that sufficiently represent the organization. Ensuring that the scenarios will be developed under multidimentional discipline conversation and argues is also proved to be a challenge. In addition, the collected information from the several sources need to be interpreted in the organization's context and framework that again contributes to increasing the required time <ref name="adv"></ref>. A lot of experience and competence requires also to create the possible scenarios without ending up with too many or only with the black and white perspective of the issue.

	Finally, a common misunderstanding stems from the fact that people do not clearly comprehend that scenarios are neither accurate predictions of the future or a crystal ball. Scenarios are just different assumptions of how the future may involved. Future is unpredictable, which means that the probability for the strategy to lead to wrong paths and decisions can be high.		Finally, a common misunderstanding stems from the fact that people do not clearly comprehend that scenarios are neither accurate predictions of the future or can be used as a crystal ball. Scenarios are just different assumptions of how the future may involved. Future is unpredictable, which means that the probability for the strategy to lead to wrong paths and decisions can be high.

	= References =		= References =

Alexandra Darmaraki: /* How to use the tools */

2017-10-02T19:10:19Z

How to use the tools

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	In the given example, possible scenario could be for instance "''What if a hurricane devastates the city during an economic crisis?''", is the organizations prepared to address this scenario?. Three to five scenarios like that will be made investigating and trying to map the possible futures.		In the given example, possible scenario could be for instance "''What if a hurricane devastates the city during an economic crisis?''", is the organizations prepared to address this scenario?. Three to five scenarios like that will be made investigating and trying to map the possible futures.

	5.'''Identify Implications and Interrelationships of Scenarios'''		5.'''Identify Implications and Interrelationships of Scenarios''':
	After developing the scenarios, the team ensures that the results are in alignment with the critical issues that was identified in Phase 1 <ref name="PMI"></ref>. More specifically, it evaluates to what extend the developed scenarios captures the initial question. An analysis takes places for determine possible interrelation of scenarios where other factors may emerge that hasn't taken into consideration before <ref name="PMI"></ref>.		After developing the scenarios, the team ensures that the results are in alignment with the critical issues that was identified in Phase 1 <ref name="PMI"></ref>. More specifically, it evaluates to what extend the developed scenarios captures the initial question. An analysis takes places for determine possible interrelation of scenarios where other factors may emerge that hasn't taken into consideration before <ref name="PMI"></ref>.

	6.'''Select Leading Scenario Indicators Monitoring Which Scenario to Implement'''		6.'''Select Leading Scenario Indicators Monitoring Which Scenario to Implement''':
	Scenarios in this step will be evaluated developing a group of indicators in order to regurarly measure and monitor their evolution. Consequently the senior and executive management will be easily aware of which scenario is gaining ground and begins to unfold.		Scenarios in this step will be evaluated developing a group of indicators in order to regurarly measure and monitor their evolution. Consequently the senior and executive management will be easily aware of which scenario is gaining ground and begins to unfold.

	7.'''Implement Strategic Plans'''		7.'''Implement Strategic Plans''':
	The last step, takes places as the scenarios start to unfold while being monitored. The future becomes more certain and the organization is able to discern and execute projects and business solutions that are in alignment with the strategic plans<ref name="PMI"></ref>.		The last step, takes places as the scenarios start to unfold while being monitored. The future becomes more certain and the organization is able to discern and execute projects and business solutions that are in alignment with the strategic plans<ref name="PMI"></ref>.