Optimism bias in teams
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Revision as of 13:57, 19 February 2023
This article will look at optimism bias, why it is important to manage teams and what effects it can have on teams, who puts their efforts towards reaching a common goal. How it can affect the dynamics and effect-coordination in the team work. Regarding moral, motivation and expectations, as well as to both look at the positive and the negative effects of optimism bias. Look at the difference between strategic misinterpretation and optimism bias. [1]
As optimism and misinterpretation, in general, can have large effects, and can cloud and lead to under- and over-reactions in decision making. It is therefore important to recognise both the investors, teams and individuals' decision making. As the actions and reasoning (as people are seen to act radically). [2]
Give a general idea of how to manage, spot and handle optimism bias in (projects &) teams.
Contents |
Optimism in general
The generel effects optimism has (look into; different markeds, teams, investors, individuals, etc?)
What is optimism.. . .
- Cognitive bias
- Strategic misrepresentation
Strategic misrepresentation is when someone deliberately presents false information for their own benefits and strategic purposes. This mostly relates to the funding or acceptance of projects, where projects are presented to have lower cost and/or higher benefits than what is actually forecast, to look more appealing on paper. There are a lot of different reasons for the tendencies to make use of such a method, and is dignified with the mindset of ‘ends justify the means’. Here firms use strategic misrepresentation to get a job/project which can lead to profits. Strategic misrepresentation is seen frequently and with higher altitude where political organizations are involved, as they have a tendency to participate in big and expensive projects . Where there is a lot of pressure from the political organizations as they tend to put more pressure and attention on the projects. As it is important for political organizations to have their project accepted, as it can have an impact on political purposes.
Tendencies for strategic misrepresentation
- Large projects with a lot of attention, and a high strategic importance usually have a large misrepresentation or bias, e.g. political bias, where there is to an extent a cognitive bias.
- Smaller projects, with low attention and/or strategic implications, the biases are more likely to be cognitive biases, e.g. optimism bias.
Optimism bias
Optimism bias is a cognitive bias, which is a human misinterpretation and tends to lead individuals to being way optimistic or casual regarding timelines and planned actions. Not to mistake it for Strategic misrepresentation, as also mentioned earlier is when () … Here there is talk about the team, experts and/or management themselves having a mis-interpretation of the situation and are themselves not aware of being optimistic
Mention; example or in depth
It is rare for forecasters to mention optimism bias to be stated as the cause of project delays, going over budget and so on. Here it is more terms like strategic misrepresentation, scope changes, weather conditions, fluctuating prices etc. which are mentioned. Meanwhile from a psychological point of view, it might be a different story.
Optimism bias can be a double edged sword (both good and bad), as it can be a driver for projects and can breed a positive and active attitude.
is when ….
“A teams puts their efforts towards reaching a common goal.”
Not to mistake it for Strategic misrepresentation, which is when
- The Planning Fallacy (Writ Large)
Managing teams and optimism bias
Lobby formation [3] , group size [3], generel management and Moral hazards and optimism bias
References
- ↑ DS/ISO 21502 (2020) Project, programme and portfolio mangement - guide on project management
- ↑ Jian Wang, Xintian Zhuang, Jun Yang & Jiliang Sheng (2014) The effects of optimism bias in teams, Applied Economics, 46:32, 3980-3994, DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.948678
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Vincent Anesl (2014) Moral hazard and free riding in collective action, DOI:10.1007/s00355-008-0318-8
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