Risk analysis
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| − | :'''Structured or semi-structured interviews:''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structured_interview Structured] or [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-structured_interview semi-structured] interviews:''' |
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| − | :'''Delphi technique:''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method Delphi technique]:''' |
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| − | :'''Preliminary hazard analysis (PHA):''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazard_analysis Preliminary hazard analysis (PHA)]:''' |
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| − | :'''Hazard and operability study (HAZOP):''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazard_and_operability_study Hazard and operability study (HAZOP)]:''' |
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| − | :'''Hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP):''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazard_analysis_and_critical_control_points Hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP)]:''' |
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| − | :'''Structured “What-If” Technique (SWIFT):''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structured_What_If_Technique Structured “What-If” Technique (SWIFT)]:''' |
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| − | :'''Scenario analysis:''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_analysis Scenario analysis]:''' |
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| − | :'''Root cause analysis (RCA):''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Root_cause_analysis Root cause analysis (RCA)]:''' |
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| − | :'''Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) / failure modes and effects and criticality analysis (FMECA):''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failure_mode_and_effects_analysis Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA)] / [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failure_mode,_effects,_and_criticality_analysis failure modes and effects and criticality analysis (FMECA)]:''' |
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| − | :'''Fault tree analysis (FTA):''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fault_tree_analysis Fault tree analysis (FTA)]:''' |
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| − | :'''Event tree analysis (ETA):''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Event_tree_analysis Event tree analysis (ETA)]:''' |
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| − | :'''Cause-and-effect analysis:''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ishikawa_diagram Cause-and-effect analysis]:''' |
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| − | :'''Decision tree analysis:''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_tree Decision tree analysis]:''' |
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| − | :'''Human reliability assessment (HRA):''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_reliability Human reliability assessment (HRA)]:''' |
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| − | :'''Bow tie analysis:''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowtie_(sequence_analysis) Bow tie analysis]:''' |
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| − | :'''Reliability centered maintainance:''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_centered_maintenance Reliability centered maintainance]:''' |
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| − | :'''Sneak analysis (SA) / sneak circuit analysis (SCI):''' | + | :'''Sneak analysis (SA) / [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sneak_circuit_analysis sneak circuit analysis (SCI)]:''' |
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| − | :'''Markov analysis:''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_chain Markov analysis]:''' |
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| − | :'''Bayesian statistics and Bayes Nets:''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference Bayesian statistics] and[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_network Bayes Nets]:''' |
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| − | :'''Cost/benefit analysis (CBA):''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost%E2%80%93benefit_analysis Cost/benefit analysis (CBA)]:''' |
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| − | :'''Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA):''' | + | :'''[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple-criteria_decision_analysis Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)]:''' |
==Reference== | ==Reference== | ||
Revision as of 02:47, 24 November 2014
Contents |
Abstract
This article is a subpart of Risk Management but will attempt to describe different approaches to analysing the risk when managing projects, portfolios and programs
Several tools will be mentioned and explained briefly, but (in order to allow the full use of the wiki) not be described in detail
Definition
According to the ISO Guide 73-2009, risk analysis is the “Process to comprehend the nature of risk and to determine the level of risk”
ISO 31000 describes risk analysis as the process which “provides an input to risk evaluation and to decisions on whether risks need to be treated, and on the most appropriate risk treatment strategies and methods”.
This process mentioned is the computational part of risk management where different aspects, variables and factors are used to estimate the risk involved with a specific feature, action, decision, condition ect. The outcome of this computation is a quantified number or percentage which can then be used as an evaluation criterion, determining either which option to select or if it is safe to proceed down the investigated path.
Main features of risk analysis
Input:
- Purpose
The purpose is the reason for analysing the risk; it assists with determining the boundaries of the analysis.
- Consequences
- Likelihood / Probabilities
- Existing control features
- Effectiveness of existing control features
- Causes of risk
- Sources of risk
- Factors influencing any of the above
- Interrelations / Interdependence
- Type of risk
- Information available
- Risk criteria
Output:
- Combined Likelihood / probability
- Consequences
- Confidence in:
- Risk level
- Sensitivity of result to preconditions and assumptions
- Information Uncertainty
- Information Availability
- Information Quality
- Information Quantity
- Ongoing relevance of information
- Limitations
Benefits of analysing risk
Different models used when analysing risk
- Structured or semi-structured interviews:
- Check-lists:
- Toxicity assessment:
- Business impact analysis (BIA):
- Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) / failure modes and effects and criticality analysis (FMECA):
- Cause-consequence analysis:
- Layers of protection analysis (LOPA):
- Sneak analysis (SA) / sneak circuit analysis (SCI):
- FN curves:
- Risk indices:
- Consequence/probability matrix:
Reference
ISO Guide 73-2009 – Risk Management Vocabulary
ISO 31000 - Risk management - Principles and guidelines
ISO 31010 - Risk management
International Journal of Project Management 32 (2014) - Vahid Khodakarami , Abdollah Abdi - Project cost risk analysis: A Bayesian networks approach for modelling dependencies between cost items
Links
Only the following links are internal in the APPPM-wiki, All others are to Wikipedia.org and may be replaced when the APPPM-pages has been written, and added to this list:
