Revision as of 16:16, 20 September 2015

Fault Tree Analysis

Fault tree analysis (Hereby noted as FTA) is a technique primarily used within Risk analysis. It provides a visual representation of an undesired event, as well as the dependencies of said event, thereby allowing one to identify and analyse what factors can contribute to this event, also called base events. Finally, it allows one to calculate the probabilities of the top event. Unfortunately, the FTA has certain limitations, as with all models, and as such, they are not sufficient alone to analyse all risks in a project. Nevertheless, FTA is a very powerful tool in managing risks, and allows for good visualizations of events and allows a displined, highly systematic, flexible approach to analysing these risks.

Big Idea

Concept

FTA is a top down analysis where one identifies the undesired state and places it as the top event, then goes through all intermediary events and draws their connection to the top event through various gates, and finally, once all intermediary events have been discovered and the base events are reached, these are added as the root of the trees.

History

Fault tree diagrams were originally invented in 1962 by the Bell Telephone Laboratories. They did this on behalf of the US Air Force in connection with the Minuteman ICBM launch control system. It was very succesful, and were subsequently adopted by the Boing Company, then the US army, then US government and, in today's world, it is used widely in System Safety and Reliability Engineering, as well as many other major fields of engineering, and can be applicated to almost any project that needs to know the effect of various events and how they connect with other events.

Applications

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A fault tree consists of 6 different symbols, as seen by figure x

• And gate:
• Or gate:
• Base event:
• Event that is not analysed further:
• Event that is analysed further:
• Event analysed on a different page:

Limitations

There are several limitations in the FTA model. Below follows a brief overview, followed by an elaboration on each subject.

• Uncertainties in the probabilities of the top event
• The whole picture is not discovered
• FTAs are a static model
• Fault trees only possess binary states
• Human error is not easily included
• FTAs do not easily enable domino effects

Uncertainties in the top event: Due to the fact that the probability of the top event is calculated from the probability of the base event and the interconnected events, if the probability of the base events are not known accurately, it will cause uncertainty in the rest of the system. The whole picture is not discovered: Sometimes, causal events are not discovered, or intermediary events are missing, thus creating a fault tree that does not cover the entire system. In this case, it prevents probability analysis until the events are discovered. FTAs are a static model: Since FTAs are static models, time is not taken into account in the model Fault trees only possess binary states: Fault trees only possess binary states, and as such, partial failures cannot be represented in these trees Human error is not easily included: Since human error varies greatly, and since Fault trees only posses binary states, one either has to include a lot of different events to compensate for possible human failure, which clouds up the diagrams, or simplify it with a simple "Human error" state, which does not show the complete picture. As such, showing human error in fault trees is not easily done. FTAs do not easily enable domino effects:

Annotated Bibliography

Risk Management - Risk Assesment Techniques, Dansk Standard, 2010 [[1]], visited the 13/9, 2015

Sample Code snips

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Figure 1: Process for Individual Assignment

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Aaanndd some references

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    1. ↑ A project management causal loop diagram, Toole, Michael, 2005.