Scenario Planning

Abstract

Scenario planning can be thought of as stories that might happen in the future. With scenario planning is complex elements intertwined into a story that is coherent, systematic comprehensive and plausible. The scenarios should not only include visionary scenarios, but also scenarios that challenge the organization. (Ringland, 2006) Scenario planning is used to help the organization to reach the right decisions in the event of different scenarios.

Scenario planning in businesses and thus construction management is divided into two categories. The first category is used to foresee a future state or condition, which is further used to simulate the choices and actions that may be taken to deal the scenario and the related consequences. The second category assumes that the choices has been established and the consequences are integrated into the story about the future state of the business. The first category simulates the thinking-process, and the second the exploring of the consequences of the choices taken. (Coates, 1999)

Scenario planning has become a popular tool for businesses. The future is unknown and complex, as a business globalizes will the business sometime in the future be in the position where it must deal with costumers, regulators, culture, economic factors, etc. (Coates, 1999)

Reference

Coates, J. F. (1999). Scenario Planning . ss. 115-123. Ringland, G. (2006). Introduction ot Scenario Planning. In Scenarios in Marketing.