Scenario Planning

Abstract

Scenario planning can be thought of as stories that might happen in the future. With scenario planning is complex elements intertwined into a story that is coherent, systematic comprehensive and plausible. The scenarios should not only include visionary stories, but stories that also challenge the organization. [1] Scenario planning is used to help the organization to reach the right decisions in the event of different scenarios.

Scenario planning in businesses and thus construction management is divided into two categories. The first category is used to foresee a future state or condition, which is further used to simulate the choices and actions that may be taken to deal the scenario and the related consequences. The second category assumes that the choices has been established and the consequences are integrated into the story about the future state of the business. The first category simulates the thinking-process, and the second the exploring of the consequences of the choices taken. [2] Further in this article will scenarios be referenced to as a combination of these two categories.

Scenario planning has become a popular tool for businesses. The future is unknown, complex and it changes much faster than in previous times. Even though we do not know how the future will look like, we know that it will not look like the past or today, however, you can be involved in how it will unfold. As a business globalizes will the business, sometime in the future, be in the position where it must deal with costumers, regulators, culture, economic factors, etc. [2] Moreover, whichever scenario that become reality, will the business be more prepared with scenario planning.

Reference

Coates, J. F. (1999). Scenario Planning . ss. 115-123. Ringland, G. (2006). Introduction ot Scenario Planning. In Scenarios in Marketing.