Milestone trend analysis

Created by Ann Sofie Grube Kjeldsen, February 2022

One of the most essential elements of successful projects and project management is to have clear project goals . A critical path in reaching project goals is by defining project milestones. Milestones are a specific period in the project that showcases what has been accomplished and allows the project manager to see a project's progress. Milestones portray a key decision or point in the project’s lifecycle when the project team is supposed to deliver deliveries before the final execution .

They are a point of reference marking major events specific date, time, or task chosen to portray a turning point within the project. Milestones monitor the project progress and help the project manager to group different tasks, thereby identifying a project critical path. It is a useful way to easily share the health and progress of the project with stakeholders and the project team . To monitor and compare the progress of each milestone with the planned milestone schedule a simple method, Milestone Trend Analysis (MTA), can be used. With MTA project managers can recognize deviations and trends from the planned schedule. The graphical Milestone Trend Analysis chart is used to graphically compare the scheduled date of the milestones and the various point in time .

Introduction

According to DS 21502 and PRINCE2, all initial plans should be prepared with milestones and gates, or decision points based on the project life cycle, combined with a detailed project plan of the phases. The project plan provides a statement of the time, cost, quality, and scope performance, that needs to be achieved. The project plan identifies management stages and milestones as a baseline to monitor progress management [6], [11]. Each phase in the project plan should have a defined start and end and a specific milestone derived from decisions, key deliveries, outputs, or outcomes [11]. These decisions are often referred to as "gates" and are an important part of project management. The project manager should collect and analyze performance and progress data to access project progress concerning the agreed project plan, including e.g., completed work, milestones achieved, and costs incurred [11].

Milestones and Trend Analysis

Milestones

According to PRINCE2, the definition of a milestone is “Milestones are significant events in the project, which divides the project into manageable parts” [6]. A project milestone is a project management tool that represents significant events and a specific future point in the project. Milestones depict prioritized tasks, key deliveries, approved stakeholders, et. They focus on highlights of the work rather than going into details. They describe more precisely when one wants to achieve an event that moves one closer to the end of a project [6].

According to the Project Canvas Manual [7], the following questions can help the project team to develop milestones:

       1. When does the project start? 
       2. When is the deadline for the project? 
       3. When do the key milestones occur? 
       4. How is the achievement of a milestone measured?

A milestone can have several functions in project management. For example. they can be used to show Stakeholders the project’s progress [9], [10]. Since milestones are a portrait of an event that has taken place, they are ideal for staying on track with project deliverables. Milestones do not have a specific duration; therefore, they can easily be used to divide the plan into sections associated with the milestones to improve efficiency as well as monitoring activities. Generally, the right amount of milestones and their duration is not settled. However, with too many, they lose their value. That being said there should be enough milestones to measure the progress of the project [6].

Trend Analysis

A trend is a series of data over time. Trends can be positive or negative depending on how and what data is analyzed. In project management, trends can be used to analyze historical data, and thus make forecasts for the future. The underlying trend forecast helps a project manager to manage and make decisions.

Trend analysis is used to analyze trends within the project. In project management, trend analysis is a mathematical technique that tries to predict future events based on the recently observed trends. Trend analysis is based on the idea of what has happened in the past, creating an idea of what will happen in the future. It is a tool used to collect information and spot a specific pattern e.g., events. Trend analyzes can be used to predict future events, but also to estimate uncertainties in a project. This can be achieved by tracking e.g., costs and whether events follow the schedule. It can be referred to as a project manager's quality control of the project. Trend analysis is used to predict future performance based on past results. It warns the project manager, that problems may occur later in the schedule if trends continue. If information is available in the early phases of the project team can analyze and prevent any irregularities.