Levels of uncertainties
Abstract: Levels of uncertainty is important for a Program, portfolio and project management toolbox as all assessments of uncertainty is based on (potentially faulty and inadequate) assumptions. Uncertainties are especially important to consider as they are not quantifiable (and attempts to do so depends on other uncertainties that may be context based). This article seeks to highlight what different levels of uncertainties there may exist, and from where they may arise. The article may contain:
BIG IDEA:
- The difference between risks and uncertainties
- Differing views on the sources/reasons for uncertainties, considereing:
o The 5 levels of uncertainties as proposed by Spiegelhalter and Riesch (2011) (event uncertainties, parameter uncertainties, model based uncertainties, acknowledged model based uncertainties, and unknown inadequacies model based uncertainties)
o 4 types of uncertainties (Wynne, 1992)
o And others (Walker (2003) on risk themes to consider (location, level, nature), van Assalt (2003) on types of uncertainties in climate governance, etc.)
APPLICATION
- Uncertainties in projects, program, and portfolio management (Following the standards provided in the course material)
- Methods for modelling uncertainties
- Communicating uncertainties
- Managing uncertainties when they arise
LIMITATIONS
- Limitations
Articles that are considered (not part of the abstract, will be considered but not for sure part yet, just here for reference):
“This Is What We Don't Know”: Treating Epistemic Uncertainty in Bayesian Networks for Risk Assessment
Risk and Uncertainty Communication
Walker, W. E., Harremoës, P., Rotmans, J., Van der Sluijs, J. P., Van Asselt, M. B. A., Janssen, P. & Krayer von Krauss, M. P. 2003 Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support.
van Asselt, M. & Rotmans, J. 2002 Uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling. Clim. Change 54, 75–105. (doi:10.1023/A:1015783803445)
Wynne, B. 1992 Uncertainty and environmental learning: reconceiving science and policy in the preventive paradigm. Global Environ. Change 2, 111–127. (doi:10.1016/0959-3780(92)90017-2)
PMI standards for project, program and portfolio management
Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk
The ambiguities of uncertainty: A review of uncertainty frameworks relevant to the assessment of environmental change (Bevan, 2022)
Don’t know, can’t know: embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks (Spiegelhalter, 2011)
