Unidentified Risks

Unidentified risks (or "Unknown unknowns") are the risks that seem impossible to find. However, studies have found that they in fact are not unidentifiable.

Abstract

In any project there will be some risks that should be carefully managed, but there will also be uncertainty, which involves variability and ambiguity (MIT reference). This article outlines four different types of uncertainty with the main focus on the unidentified risks (or the “unknown unknowns”).

To describe uncertainty management in detail, this article will first explain what variability and ambiguity in projects consists of and then dig deeper into the different types of uncertainty. Finally, some tools to manage the unidentified risks are presented as well as a reflection on the usage of the tools. Below are the sections of the article outlined:

• Big idea
  • Uncertainty
    • Variability
    • Ambiguity
  • Types of uncertainty
    • Known knowns
    • Known unknowns
    • Unknown knowns
    • Unknown unknowns
• Applications
  • Tools for uncertainty management
• Limitations
  • Reflections on the tools
• Annotated bibliography

The unknown unknowns are the type of uncertainty that is generated due to lack of knowledge or unexpected events and changes in the project. Before a project is started, it is important to reflect on the possible factors that can influence the project. Part of this is to reflect on the types of uncertainty, namely the known knowns (change control), known unknowns (risk management), unknown knowns (planning & communication errors) and the unknown unknowns (unexpected events and changes). A model to describe these four types of uncertainty is the Cynefin Framework which is divided in to the following: Order, unorder and disorder. Unorder is furthermore divided in to the complex domain and the complicated domain, while order is divided in to the chaotic domain and the simple domain. The Cynefin Framework will be used as a model to describe the types of uncertainty throughout this article.

Big idea

Here the big idea will be written.

Application

Here the application will be written.

Limitations

Here the limitations will be written.

Annotated bibliography

Here the bibliography will be written.

Kim, S. D. (2012). Characterizing unknown unknowns. Paper presented at PMI® Global Congress 2012—North America, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute.