Milestone trend analysis

Created by Ann Sofie Grube Kjeldsen, February 2022

One of the most crucial elements of successful projects and project management is to have clear project goals . A critical path in reaching project goals is by defining project milestones. Milestones are a specific period in the project that showcases what has been accomplished and allows the project manager to see the progress of a project. Milestones portray an essential decision or point in a project lifecycle when the project team is supposed to deliver deliveries before the final execution .

Milestones monitor the progress of any project and help the project manager classify different tasks, thereby identifying critical paths. It is a practical way to easily share the progress and health of the project with stakeholders and the project team . To monitor and compare the progress of each milestone with the planned schedule, a simple method, Milestone Trend Analysis (MTA), can be used to navigate through uncertainties and limited information. It allows project managers to recognize deviations and trends from the planned schedule. The graphics of the chart can compare the scheduled date of the milestones and the various point in time .

Introduction

According to ISO 21502 and PRINCE2, milestones and "gates" or decision points based on the project life cycle, combined with a detailed project plan of the phases, should prepare the initial phase of any project. The project plan provides a statement of the time, cost, quality, and scope performance. The project plan identifies management stages and milestones as a baseline to monitor progress management . Each phase in the project plan should have a defined start and end and a specific milestone derived from decisions, key deliveries, outputs, or outcomes. These decisions are often referred to as "gates" and are an important part of project management. The project manager should collect and analyze performance and progress data to access project progress concerning the agreed project plan, including e.g., completed work, milestones achieved, and costs incurred .

Milestones and Trend Analysis

Milestones

According to PRINCE2, the definition of a milestone is “Milestones are significant events in the project, which divides the project into manageable parts” . A project milestone is a project management tool that represents significant events and a specific future point in the project. Milestones depict prioritized tasks, key deliveries, approved stakeholders, et. They focus on highlights of the work rather than going into details. They describe more precisely when one wants to achieve an event that moves one closer to the end of a project .

The following questions can help the project team to develop milestones :

1. When does the project start?
2. When is the deadline for the project?
3. When do the key milestones occur?
4. How is the achievement of a milestone measured?

A milestone can have several functions in project management. For example. they can be used to show Stakeholders the project’s progress . Some of the most common milestones are listed below :

1. Approval from all stakeholders
2. Reporting completed deliverables to the client
3. Completing critical tasks
4. End of project

Since milestones are a portrait of an event that has taken place, they are ideal for staying on track with project deliverables. Milestones do not have a specific duration; therefore, they can easily divide the plan into sections associated with the milestones to monitor activities and improve efficiency. Generally, the correct number of milestones and their duration is not determined. However, with too many, they lose their value. That being said there should be enough milestones to measure the progress of a project .

Trend Analysis

A trend is a series of data over time. A trend can be positive or negative depending on how and what data is analyzed. In project management, a trend can analyze historical data, and thus make forecasts for the future. The underlying trend forecast helps a project manager to manage and make decisions.

Trend analysis analyzes trends and points in turn within the project. In project management, trend analysis is a mathematical technique predicting future events based on the recently observed trends. Trend analysis is build-on the idea; of what happened in the past, creates an idea of what could happen in the future. It is a tool used to collect information and spot a specific pattern within the planned schedule .

Trend analysis can predict future events and also estimate uncertainties in a project. Tracking costs and whether activities are on schedule limits possibilities and estimates uncertainties. Trend analysis can be referred to as a project manager's quality control of the project . Trend analysis can be used to predict future performance based on past results. It warns the project manager, that problems may occur later in the schedule if trends continue. If information is available in the early phases of the project team can analyze and prevent any irregularities. Trend analysis is used to predict future performance based on past results. It warns the project manager, that problems may occur later in the schedule if trends continue. If information is available in the early phases of the project team can analyze and prevent any irregularities .

Schedule Management

For any project team, it is only possible to implement goals in a plan if it contains defined activities in a schedule that defines when to be executed. There are many approaches towards planning a project - it can be a manual schedule or a computer-based control tool .

The purpose of schedule management is to reduce unexpected changes in the schedule as best as possible. It requires that activities in the plan are on time or ahead of time. To determine a critical path or identify alternative methods planned schedules must have described dependencies . A project manager's task is to check that the project scope is delivered on time within the original project constraints. It is done by monitoring progress and comparing the current project status with the planned schedule. Control of the schedule involves phase monitoring, project-related activities, etc., also the management of schedule changes and milestones . Implementation of techniques, such as Earned Value Management and Milestone Trend Analysis, can help monitor the process and predict future performance methods.

Milestones in project scheduling

Milestones can help add value to project planning. For added value, one can combine them with methodologies such as Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Critical Path Method (CPM), or Milestone Trend Analysis. These tools can provide an overview of whether the project is on time. Status of the project progress provides regular monitoring of the project - exactly whether the schedule is met. If the project plan is carefully deduced and evaluated, the chances of the project succeeding are high if the plan is also followed. As milestones are versatile, they are an important element of the project plan. They can calculate slack in the project timeline, check and track progress .

An important part to remember when using milestones is to use them for something other than planning. They are also for celebrating project results. A milestone reached means that the project team has done something right, such as accomplishing important delivery. When a project manager actively uses milestones to recognize the project team's performance, it breeds a positive relationship with the team and creates trust between the manager and the employees. Overall, this contributes to a productive project.

Milestone Trend Analysis

Milestone Trends Analysis is from the perspective of "Uncertainty".

Figure 1: Milestone Trend Analysis

In this perspective, the lack of knowledge, uncertainties, and how to minimize these throughout the lifetime of a project. A part of uncertainties is to be able to anticipate these uncertainties and plan how to respond to new opportunities and risks.

When the project manager considers whether to use Milestone Trend Analysis (MTA), the following questions can be considered: Can the schedule be met? Should indisputable deadlines be postponed, or can delays be compensated efficiently? Milestone Trend Analysis can manage time processes and answer the above questions. Milestone Trend Analysis requires defined milestones in the project. Each milestone needs a defined deadline for when it should be completed. However, it also often happens that milestones are not completed either on time or just completed in general, for example, incorrect delivery of essential materials. The many responsibilities that build on each other contribute individually to the risk of incorrect deliveries, which can endanger the health of the project.

Milestone Trend Analysis is primarily used to assess and control the high risk of project delays is. Therefore, when preparing tasks and schedules, buffers for disruptive factors should be included. The analysis enables the team to identify bottlenecks in advantages and initiate measures to ensure that tasks are completed before the deadline. If the project team is incapable of correcting the delays/bottlenecks, the tool will be able to help inform any stakeholders about delays in advantages. MTA is also suitable for the overall evaluation of the project as the project manager can check where the error in the planning is and thereby learn from it for future projects .

Graphical application

Milestone trend analysis is a simple diagram that shows the different milestones and the project process.

Figure 1: Trend line explanation

The Milestone Trend Analysis is a triangle-shaped chart. On the x-axis, you see the reporting dates, and the planned dates are on the y-axis. Each milestone is represented by a trend line moving along the x or up the y axis. The diagonal line on the right side represents the project deadline .

The trend lines direction has different meanings concerning adherence to the schedule:

Horizontal trend line: the milestone is completed on time.

Declining trend line: this means that the project milestone is ahead of schedule.

Rising trend line: a rising trend line means that the milestone is delayed. The delays can be compensated with embedded buffers and measures. If the trend line rises a lot, you should re-evaluate the project's submission data and possibly set a later date.

Zigzag trend line: this occurs because some deadlines are reached earlier than first assumed and others later than planned. This trend line is an indication of discrepancies in the schedule. Discrepancies cause the schedule to be analyzed in detail for further optimized planning and processes.

Benefits and limitations

Benefits

Milestones

Milestone analysis is beneficial for signaling the completion of essential project phases and creating boundaries between work packages. It increases the team's ability to respond to changes and create logical review points. Milestones also provide periodic goals that keep team members motivated. They represent significant results within the larger picture of the project. It also draws the team's attention to the status of the project. Overall, the analysis provides a clear picture of the project's development.

The benefits of milestones are that they help team members and managers with hassle-free project delivery. An identified and defined milestone is the starting point for each project's execution work. Successful milestones can give stakeholders a precise understanding of how the project progresses relative to the original plan. For larger projects involving several teams, resources, etc. helps set up milestones to improve productivity and delivery of the project within time and budget. In addition, they can identify potential bottlenecks and uncertainties that affect important tasks and hinder project progress, and as a consequence, it emanates delays and exceeded budgets.

Milestone Trend Analysis

It is a simple method; the analysis is easy to implement and simultaneously very useful. The presentation of the diagram is clear and easy to understand. The trend line diagram shows the overall time structure. It is easy to interpret and understand even without prior knowledge of Milestone Trend Analysis. The milestone analysis shows the project status and provides valuable conclusions about the work during the post-analysis.

Limitations

Milestones

Milestones should be introduced early in project planning and should be monitored and updated throughout the project. Not knowing what activities are needed to complete the milestones is a huge limitation as the project manager may end up with an overambitious schedule due to misjudgments. They usually only show progress on the critical path and ignore non-critical activities. It is common for resources to be shifted from non-critical activities to critical activities to ensure that milestones are met. This often gives the impression that some activities in the project will be ignored.

Milestones should be introduced early in project planning and should be monitored and updated throughout the project. Not knowing what activities are needed to complete the milestones is a huge limitation as the project manager may end up with an overambitious schedule due to misjudgments. During a project, it is still important to focus on the whole project progress and the final milestone and not be obsessed with intermediate milestones. Even if milestones are incorporated, it is the final product or delivery that counts, not each milestone.

Milestones Trend Analysis

This type of analysis only provides an opportunity to respond to problems, not foresight or prevention. Problems can amplify and grow to the point they are unmanageable, resulting in a significant over budget/planning project. They usually only show progress on the critical path and ignore non-critical activities. It is common for resources to be shifted from non-critical activities to critical activities to ensure that milestones are met.

The simplicity of the analysis means that the method does not cover all the things that may be necessary for a project. The method is limited to an actual comparison of the status of a task - this means that it does not consider the extent to which tasks are interdependent. In addition, it does not necessarily show the problem areas of a project in time, and they only become visible later.