Robust Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract

The uncertainty is highest in the beginning of a project, but it is also here decisions of crucial importance for the project's outcome are made. Furthermore, the world is constantly changing, making it impossible to make reliable decisions based on prediction of what the future holds. There is a need to move away from prediction to calculating the most robust decisions.

This article describes how to approach decisions under high uncertainty as a project manager or project stakeholder using robust decision making (RDM). RDM is a set of methods and tools developed over the last decade, primarily by researchers associated with the RAND Corporation. The article explains the XLRM Matrix for RDM and the Iterative Steps of RDM as well as how to apply these through exemplification. Limitations and challenges of the method are touched on, including the challenge of shifting to a new way of dealing with uncertainty.

It is inevitable to encounter uncertainties in projects, but you can do your best to investigate which strategies will perform best under these uncertainties. RDM is an iterative framework that offers a data-based assessment on future scenarios on which stakeholders and decision makers can base their decisions.

Application of RDM

1. Decision Framing

XLRM Matrix

2. Evaluate Strategies across Futures

3. Vulnerability Analysis

4. Tradeoff Analysis

5. New Futures & Strategies