The Cynefin Framework

The Cynefin Framework

This article will introduce the Cynefin framework and its underlying practices, which can be used for sense- and decision making in a complex and complicated world. The framework is developed by David J. Snowden (born 1 April 1954), and is used by leaders to determine context of a situation, so they can make appropriate choices. The framework has been applied in multiple contexts, among them are strategy management, project management, research, policy making, leadership training, healthcare etc.

The Cynefin framework splits the issues that faces leaders into five contexts; simple, complicated, complex, chaotic and disorder. Each of which requires different approaches to leadership style.

As a quick overview, The Cynefin Framework consists of:

• A core graphic, which content that varies from source to source
• A set of methods on how to make sense of- and decisions within ordered and un-ordered systems.

The Cynefin model

Order vs. unorder

The Cynefin framework distinguieshes between order, unorder and disorder. It describes five contexts that leaders can use for categorizing operating contexts for making appropriate choices. Each context requires different action. The simple and complicated domains assume an ordered universe, where decisions can be based on facts, right answers can be determined and there is a direct link between cause-and-effect. Whereas the complex and chaotic domains are unordered and deals with uncertainty, there is no direct link between cause-and-effect, and decisions and right answers is searched for in emerging patterns. In the the final domain disorder is hard to determine when one is in it. Different leaders have different opinions, and the way out, is to break the situation down to smaller parts, and assign each sub-situation to one of the four domains.

Order:

Complicated and simple domains

1. Simple contexts (known knowns)
The domain of best practice, known-knowns, here we know exactly what we are doing and we have done it before, so we sense, categorize and responds (S-C-R)

2. Complicated contexts (known unknowns)
The domain where we do not know what is going on, but we know that we can analyse what has happened and figure it out. We are sense, analyse and responds (S-A-R)

Unorder:

All domains

3. Complex contexts (unknown unknowns)
In the complex domain we can not determine what will be the outcome, but we can run some experiments and see if they will move us in the right direction. We probe, sense and respond (P-S-R). In this domain we can only understand what is happening in hindsight .

4. Chaotic contexts (unknowable unknowns)
In this domain, the domain of unknowables, it does not make sense to search for answers, no patterns exist - only turbulence. We act (do something), we sense where stability emerges and then we respond by working towards complexity (A-S-R).

Disorder (not determined)
These are the situations where one are yet to break down and determine where the situation belongs in the framework.

The cliff (the cliff between simple and chaos) The cliff are represented as a fold in the Cynefin Framework. The cliff represents complacency(extreme simplicity), the state where the situation feels secure, but one is unaware of the potential dangers in the existing situation. When the situation moves from simple to chaos in a sudden change, e.g. the business goes from a steady place and is suddenly thrown into chaos, the framework implies that one is fallen of the cliff.

Guide on leadership

Framework for decision making in multiple contexts
Snowden states, that if you want to become effective as a leader, you must learn to shift your leadership style to match the changing business environments. The four different domains call for different leadership styles and managerial responses.

	Characteristics of context	The leaders job	Danger signals	Response to danger signals
Simple	-Known-Knowns, -Repeating patterns and consistent events, -Cause-and-effect relationships are obvious to everyone, -Right answers exist, -Fact-based management,	-S-C-R: Sense, Categorise, Respond, -Ensure that best practices are in place, -Delegate, -Communicate in clear, direct ways,	-Comfort, -Desire to make complex problems simple, -Entrained thinking, -Over reliance on best practice if context shifts,	-Don't assume that things are simple, -Stay connected without micromanaging, -Recognize both the value and the pitfalls of best practice,
Complicated	-Known-unknowns, -Expert diagnosis required, -Cause-and-effect relationships can be determined, -More than one right answer is possible, -Fact-based management,	-S-A-R: Sense, Analyse, Respond, -Create panels of experts, -Listen to conflicting advice,	-Experts overconfident in their solutions or in past solutions, -Analysis paralysis, -Viewpoints of non-experts are excluded,	-Encourage internal and external stakeholders to challenge expert opinions and thinking,
Complex	-Unknown-unknowns, -Flux and unpredictability, -No right answers; emergent patterns, -Many competing ideas, -Pattern-based leadership,	-P-B-R: Probe, Sense, Respond, -Create environments and experiments that allows patterns to emerge, -Use methods that can help generate ideas,	-Temptation to look for facts rather than allowing patterns to emerge, -Desire for accelerated resolutions of problems or opportunities,	-Be patient and allow time for reflection, -Use approaches that encourage interaction so patterns can emerge,
Chaotic	-Unknowable-unknowns, -No clear cause-and-effect relationships, no point in looking for right answers, -Many decisions to make and no time to think, -High tension, -Pattern-based leadership,	-A-S-R: Act, Sense, Respond, -Take immediate action to reestablish order, -Provide clear and direct communication,	-Applying a command-and-control approach longer than needed, -Missed opportunity for innovation,	-Try to move the situation towards the complex domain, -Set up mechanisms (teams) to take advantage of emerging opportunities,

Perspective on organisational theory and paradigms

Ontology and ideology
In most current management practices, the ideology that seem to exist assumes that there is an underlying relationship between cause and effect, and predicts that the future can be planned by discovering these underlying relationships. Examples are case studies and consultancy frameworks, that rely on transferring best practices across companies and industries. It is assumed that there is a right answer to problems/situations, and that failure hereof is a failure in analysis on the underlying causal relationships.

This ideology belongs to the modernist paradigm of organisational theory, where managers base their decisions mainly on descriptive measures and statistics. This ideology of decision making is represented in the right hand side of The Cynefin Framework (the domain of order: simple and complicated).
When introduced to complex situations, former practitioners have relied on reductionistic scientific methods, which assumes that complex systems is nothing but a sum of its parts. Managers have therefore made decisions by breaking down the situations into sub-parts and analysed each part individually, implying that the answer to the complex problem could be found in the sum of cause-and-effect relationships.

The method of reductionism is, however, contradicting with the ideology of decision making in complexity. When reductionist thinking asserts that we proceed when certain, complexity thinking enables us to proceed by probing that which always be uncertain.

The left hand side of the Cynefin Framework (complexity and chaos) therefore breaks with traditional modernistic decision making, by introducing sense- and decision making approaches in situations that does not have underlying causality and is therefore belonging in the post-modern paradigm, where there are no definite answer to situations and problems.

The driving example

Situational changes

A very simple example that is used in literature to explain the domains and contexts are the example of driving a car. Let's consider that you are driving a car, a system that is stable one day and we believe we know how it works. When the car runs low on gasoline (simple), we fill it up. A repeating pattern where the solution is commonly known, there is a clear relationship between cause-and-effect. Let's say the car makes an unintended noise, we might have to take it to an expert that will analyse the problem and fix it (complicated), the cause-and-effect relationships are discoverable, but not by everyone. Previous examples both belong in the ordered domain. We can consider situations where we are thrown out in complex or chaotic events where there is no right answers. You are the driver, and in the middle of a huge car accident on the highway, all cars go in each their direction with no emerging patterns, there is high turbulence, and you have no time to think. You will need to act(do something), then sense if the situation is moving to the better and then respond accordingly(chaotic). All of these situations could happen one after another, and one should therefor imagine that the situation moves around in the framework.

Example of using the Cynefin Framework

Examples of uses

Cynefin used in projects
The Cynefin framework can be used in projects as a sense-making tool and as a common language for dealing with complexity. When using the framework in project management, Snowden emphasizes using the framework as a collective sense-making method that allows specific patterns to emerge in the understanding of the project .

Snowden's idea with sense-making in projects is to provide a common understanding of language depending on the environment. Snowden claims that experts' language is too restricted and abstract for managing complexity in project work, and remains about the problem but still far above it. Snowden therefore emphasizes the role of language in sense-making about complexity in projects and especially as a communicator to create meaningfull messages that are informative, comprehensive and not oversimplified .

• Cynefin used in Ergonomics

LEGO game for management training

The Cynefin Framework is also used for management training on how to make decisions in agile organisations .

I have created an additional MediaWIKI page for understanding the Cynefin Framework. The wiki-page will introduce a game created by Agile42.com, by Andrea Tomasini, an Agile Coach and trainer.

Follow this link: The cynefin LEGO game,

Criticism

The Cynefin Framework has, since it's origin in 1999 , received various forms of critique. The points of critique, have mainly been around the structure of the framework and the definitions or categorizations of the domains.

Critique of the structure of the framework: Rick Davies criticize the framework on it's structure, given that is is build up as a 2x2 matrix, but without axes so the one using the framework can't identify, or see, where he or she is in the framework.

In response, Snowden states that the Cynefin Framework is not a 2x2 matrix, but an emergent sense-making framework. He continues, that he does not like 2x2 matrices, since they create a categorization approach where people makes things fit.

In addition to this, Tom Graves, another criticizer of the Cynefin Framework, explicitly states that the framework is not a 2x2 matrix, and adds that the disorder domain is fundamental for the model. He states that: "The four domains – Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic – represent distinct ‘ways of knowing’, or ways of making sense of ‘the unknown’, the central domain of Disorder. The central domain always exists; the other domains are, in effect, overlays on top of Disorder."

There seem to be an ongoing discussion on the use of- and the structure of the Cynefin framework, especially in relation to other sense-making frameworks such as The Business Model Canvas, VPEC-T and Causal Layered Analysis

Additional reading

For more information on the Cynefin Framework, you might find the following sources useful
Videos
In the right hand side

Cynefin framework explained by David J. Snowden

Simple explanation of The Cynefin Framework, by Shawn Callahan

Articles

• Article: Harvard business review: Snowden, David J., and Mary E. Boone. "A leader's framework for decision making."

• Article: Snowden, Dave. "Strategy in the context of uncertainty." Handbook of Business strategy 6.1 (2005): 47-54.

• Article: Hasan, Helen, and Alanah Kazlauskas. "The Cynefin framework: putting complexity into perspective." (2014): 55.

• Article: Jarrar, Yasar F., and Mohamed Zairi. "Best practice transfer for future competitiveness: a study of best practices." Total Quality Management 11.4-6 (2000): 734-740.

• Article: Browning, Larry, and Thierry Boudès. "The use of narrative to understand and respond to complexity: A comparative analysis of the Cynefin and Weickian models." E: CO 7.3-4 (2005): 32-39.

• Article: Van Beurden, Eric K., et al. "Making sense in a complex landscape: how the Cynefin Framework from Complex Adaptive Systems Theory can inform health promotion practice." Health promotion international (2011): dar089.

• Article: 'Cynefin Centre: Life after IBM' 2005, KM World, 14, 7, pp. 1-26, Business Source Premier, EBSCOhost, viewed 14 November 2014.

• Article: Elford, W. (2012). A multi-ontology view of ergonomics: applying the Cynefin Framework to improve theory and practice. Work, 41, 812.

• Article: Snowden, D. (2000). Cynefin, A Sense of Time and Place: an Ecological Approach to Sense Making and Learning in Formal and Informal Communities" conference proceedings of KMAC at the University of Aston, July 2000

• The new dynamics of strategy: sense-making in a complex and complicated world http://alumni.media.mit.edu/~brooks/storybiz/kurtz.pdf

Books

• Book: Hatch, Mary Jo. Organization theory: modern, symbolic and postmodern perspectives. Oxford university press, 2012.

Links

• About Dave J. Snowden: http://web.up.ac.za/default.asp?ipkCategoryID=5667

• Cynefin 101, an article by Greg Brougham http://www.infoq.com/articles/cynefin-introduction

• Definition of reductionism: Interdisciplinary Encyclopedia of Religion and Science ISSN: 2037-2329

• The Cynefin LEGO game by Andrea Tomasini http://www.agile42.com/en/blog/2011/12/25/cynefin-lego-game/

• Criticism of the Cynefin Framework http://mandenews.blogspot.dk/2010/08/test3.html

• Criticism of the Cynefin Framework 2 http://weblog.tetradian.com/2011/10/29/using-cynefin-in-ea/#comment-69939