Daniel Kahneman's two systems of thinking
In the book "Thinking, fast and slow", writen by the nobel price winner in econonics and professor in psychology Daniel Kahneman, two different methods of thinking is presented, called system 1 and 2.
System 1 rely on knowledge and rutine, and is engaged when a subject is dealing with a task that requires little to no effort, e.g. simple mathematical calculations or rutine work [1]. System 2 is engaged when dealing with tasks in which attention is required and necessary for completing the task, e.g. searching for at specific person in a crowd or parallel parking a car [2]. Both of the systems run simultaneously whenever we are awake, normally system 2 is in a low effort mode, where system 1 "continuously reports impressions, intuitions, intensions and feelings"[3]. These impressions and intuitions can be turned into beliefs and voluntary actions by system 2. In decision making under uncertainty, a cognative bias will thus interfere with the decision making process and have a impact on the thinking of system 2. It is therefore a general misunderstanding that humans think logically, which is why the two systems are relevant in project management.
This article will focus on the correlation between the two systems of thinking and forecasting [4] in project management. More precisely the article will be investigate the two systems internal interaction when affected by the anchoring effect and it's influence on the optimistic bias when predicting cost, duration and benefits of projects.
Contents |
The two systems assessment to forecasting
* The optimistic bias and its influence on prediction of cost, duration and benefits * the influence of anchoring
Application
* how to enable and avoid anchoring *
Limitations
References
- ↑ Kahneman, D. (2012) Thinking, fast and slow . London: Penguin.
- ↑ Kahneman, D. (2012) Thinking, fast and slow . London: Penguin.
- ↑ Kahneman, D. (2012) Thinking, fast and slow . London: Penguin. side 24
- ↑ Project Management Institute, Inc.. (2017). Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) (6th Edition). Project Management Institute, Inc. (PMI).
