Delphi Method (expert for identification)
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| − | + | The Delphi method is a technique used, primarily, to make quantitative assessments basing the anonymity as one of the main features compared with other measure methods. Normally is referred as a ‘quasi-anonymity’ because the respondents know one another, but their opinions and judgments remain in complete anonymity always. The name was coined by the philosopher Kaplan, in honour of the Oracle of Delphi, at the beginning of the Cold War to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion of a group of experts by series of questionnaires. This is characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process, making it more effective under the premise of a group of judgments is more valid than individual ones for dealing complex problems. Organizations and companies use it when they want to tackle significant decision-making that will set the future guidelines. The results of this analysis have direct implications for the development or revision of a lot of aspects inside the companies. Furthermore, there are relevant applications of this method as forecasting, issue identification, prioritization or concept and framework development that makes it unique and a very powerful tool. The method accuracy can be evaluated by comparing it with other methods of measure with direct interaction, structured and unstructured. After the application of this method, other supplementary analysis to take into account may be the distributional estimates, the individual skills learning and different forms of feedback, as ask the subjects to write their reasons for the answers. Finally, the ethical considerations that have this method are delicate because the participants do not meet face to face, so they can react to ideas unbiased the by the participants identities. | |
== Introduction == | == Introduction == | ||
Revision as of 13:16, 17 September 2017
The Delphi method is a technique used, primarily, to make quantitative assessments basing the anonymity as one of the main features compared with other measure methods. Normally is referred as a ‘quasi-anonymity’ because the respondents know one another, but their opinions and judgments remain in complete anonymity always. The name was coined by the philosopher Kaplan, in honour of the Oracle of Delphi, at the beginning of the Cold War to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion of a group of experts by series of questionnaires. This is characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process, making it more effective under the premise of a group of judgments is more valid than individual ones for dealing complex problems. Organizations and companies use it when they want to tackle significant decision-making that will set the future guidelines. The results of this analysis have direct implications for the development or revision of a lot of aspects inside the companies. Furthermore, there are relevant applications of this method as forecasting, issue identification, prioritization or concept and framework development that makes it unique and a very powerful tool. The method accuracy can be evaluated by comparing it with other methods of measure with direct interaction, structured and unstructured. After the application of this method, other supplementary analysis to take into account may be the distributional estimates, the individual skills learning and different forms of feedback, as ask the subjects to write their reasons for the answers. Finally, the ethical considerations that have this method are delicate because the participants do not meet face to face, so they can react to ideas unbiased the by the participants identities.
Contents |
Introduction
Definition
History
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Objective of the method
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Main Characteristics
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Applications
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Accuracy of the method
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Supplementary analysis
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Ethical considerations
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Annotated bibliography
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