http://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&feed=atom&action=historyForecasting and estimation techniques - Revision history2024-03-28T16:22:03ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.19.0http://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&diff=124351&oldid=prevJoakimc at 09:32, 12 February 20232023-02-12T09:32:16Z<p></p>
<a href="http://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&diff=124351&oldid=124163">Show changes</a>Joakimchttp://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&diff=124163&oldid=prevJoakimc: /* Forecasting methods */2023-02-11T16:54:42Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Forecasting methods</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>= Forecasting methods =</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>= Forecasting methods =</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">It can be projected into the future in </del>two <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">ways: through qualitative methods</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">in which we rely </del>on <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">past actions or on the implicit knowledge of the subject to intuit future actions</del>. <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Or through </del>quantitative methods<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, in which through the use of statistics or </del>mathematical models<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, </del>historical data <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">are projected </del>into the future.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">When deciding on a forecasting method there are </ins>two <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">categories</ins>, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">qualitative and quantitative. The preferred approach depends </ins>on <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">what data is available</ins>. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">If historical data consisting of numerical information is available, such as time series data, then '''</ins>quantitative methods<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">''' that uses </ins>mathematical models <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">to project </ins>historical data into the future <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">are preferred. If there exists no historical data appropriate for quantitative forecasting '''qualitative methods''' that rely on judgement and intuition are preferred</ins>.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Qualitative methods ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Qualitative methods ==</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>3. Commercial actions of the company. There are certain actions, such as marketing campaigns, sales periods or new store openings, where demand is expected to increase considerably.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>3. Commercial actions of the company. There are certain actions, such as marketing campaigns, sales periods or new store openings, where demand is expected to increase considerably.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><del style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>= Forecasting problems =</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>= Forecasting problems =</div></td></tr>
</table>Joakimchttp://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&diff=124149&oldid=prevJoakimc: /* Forecasting process */2023-02-11T16:34:44Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Forecasting process</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''3. Selecting forecasting technique:'''</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''3. Selecting forecasting technique:'''</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>It is essential to to identify patterns in the collected data such as points of maximum, seasonality, and cycles. In most cases it will be relevant to visualize the data to identify patterns.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>It is essential to to identify patterns in the collected data such as <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">trend, </ins>points of maximum, seasonality, and cycles. In most cases it will be relevant to visualize the data to identify patterns.  </div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''4. Conduct the forecast:'''</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''4. Conduct the forecast:'''</div></td></tr>
</table>Joakimchttp://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&diff=124148&oldid=prevJoakimc: /* Big Idea */2023-02-11T16:34:06Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Big Idea</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Depending on the discipline (business, economics, politics, industry, society, commerce...), the term "forecast" will have one meaning or another. At the level of operations management, forecasting is defined as an approximation to future circumstances through a subjective and objective assessment being different from past data, but taking them as a starting point. The goal of forecasting is to provide insights and support decision-making. Under no circumstances can forecasts be taken as if they were a "crystal ball" capable of seeing the future, since they will always have a percentage of error, depending on how the forecast has been made, as we will see below. This means that forecasts should always be accompanied by a measure of uncertainty <ref name=''book''> ''Operations Management, School of Business Bangladesh Open University. Ziaul Haq Mamun, Ali Ahsan, 2005'' </ref>.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Depending on the discipline (business, economics, politics, industry, society, commerce...), the term "forecast" will have one meaning or another. At the level of operations management, forecasting is defined as an approximation to future circumstances through a subjective and objective assessment being different from past data, but taking them as a starting point. The goal of forecasting is to provide insights and support decision-making. Under no circumstances can forecasts be taken as if they were a "crystal ball" capable of seeing the future, since they will always have a percentage of error, depending on how the forecast has been made, as we will see below. This means that forecasts should always be accompanied by a measure of uncertainty <ref name=''book''> ''Operations Management, School of Business Bangladesh Open University. Ziaul Haq Mamun, Ali Ahsan, 2005'' </ref>.  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Various <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">methods exist for </del>forecasting. The choice of <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">method </del>depends on the characteristics of the data, the nature of the forecasting problem, and the desired level of accuracy. However, there are som key features that are common to all forecasts <ref name="ProductionManagamentbook"> Stevenson, William J., et al. Operations management. Boston: McMcGraw-Hill Irwin, 2007 </ref>:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Various forecasting <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">techniques exists</ins>. The choice of <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">technique </ins>depends on the characteristics of the data, the nature of the forecasting problem, and the desired level of accuracy. However, there are som key features that are common to all forecasts <ref name="ProductionManagamentbook"> Stevenson, William J., et al. Operations management. Boston: McMcGraw-Hill Irwin, 2007 </ref>:</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>1. Forecasts follows the assumption that patterns from the past will, to some extent, remain in the future.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>1. Forecasts follows the assumption that patterns from the past will, to some extent, remain in the future.</div></td></tr>
</table>Joakimchttp://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&diff=124147&oldid=prevJoakimc: /* Big Idea */2023-02-11T16:33:21Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Big Idea</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>= Big Idea =</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>= Big Idea =</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Depending on the discipline (business, economics, politics, industry, society, commerce...), the term "forecast" will have one meaning or another. At the level of operations management, forecasting is defined as an approximation to future circumstances through a subjective and objective assessment being different from past data, but taking them as a starting point. The goal of forecasting is to provide insights and support decision-making. Under no circumstances can forecasts be taken as if they were a "crystal ball" capable of seeing the future, since they will always have a percentage of error, depending on how the forecast has been made, as we will see below. This means that forecasts should always be accompanied by a measure of uncertainty <ref name=''book''> ''Operations Management, School of Business Bangladesh Open University. Ziaul Haq Mamun, Ali Ahsan, 2005'' </ref>.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Depending on the discipline (business, economics, politics, industry, society, commerce...), the term "forecast" will have one meaning or another. At the level of operations management, forecasting is defined as an approximation to future circumstances through a subjective and objective assessment being different from past data, but taking them as a starting point. The goal of forecasting is to provide insights and support decision-making. Under no circumstances can forecasts be taken as if they were a "crystal ball" capable of seeing the future, since they will always have a percentage of error, depending on how the forecast has been made, as we will see below. This means that forecasts should always be accompanied by a measure of uncertainty <ref name=''book''> ''Operations Management, School of Business Bangladesh Open University. Ziaul Haq Mamun, Ali Ahsan, 2005'' </ref>.  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><del style="color: red; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Various methods exist for forecasting. The choice of method depends on the characteristics of the data, the nature of the forecasting problem, and the desired level of accuracy. However, there are som key features that are common to all forecasts <ref name="ProductionManagamentbook"> Stevenson, William J., et al. Operations management. Boston: McMcGraw-Hill Irwin, 2007 </ref>:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Various methods exist for forecasting. The choice of method depends on the characteristics of the data, the nature of the forecasting problem, and the desired level of accuracy. However, there are som key features that are common to all forecasts <ref name="ProductionManagamentbook"> Stevenson, William J., et al. Operations management. Boston: McMcGraw-Hill Irwin, 2007 </ref>:</div></td></tr>
</table>Joakimchttp://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&diff=124146&oldid=prevJoakimc: /* Big Idea */2023-02-11T16:33:09Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Big Idea</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Various methods exist for forecasting<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, which are usually divided into qualitative and quantitative approaches</del>. The choice of method depends on the characteristics of the data, the nature of the forecasting problem, and the desired level of accuracy. However, there are som key features that are common to all forecasts <ref name="ProductionManagamentbook"> Stevenson, William J., et al. Operations management. Boston: McMcGraw-Hill Irwin, 2007 </ref>:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Various methods exist for forecasting. The choice of method depends on the characteristics of the data, the nature of the forecasting problem, and the desired level of accuracy. However, there are som key features that are common to all forecasts <ref name="ProductionManagamentbook"> Stevenson, William J., et al. Operations management. Boston: McMcGraw-Hill Irwin, 2007 </ref>:</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>1. Forecasts follows the assumption that patterns from the past will, to some extent, remain in the future.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>1. Forecasts follows the assumption that patterns from the past will, to some extent, remain in the future.</div></td></tr>
</table>Joakimchttp://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&diff=124145&oldid=prevJoakimc: /* Forecasting process */2023-02-11T16:28:51Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Forecasting process</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The forecasting process can be described in the following 5 steps<ref name="ProductionManagamentbook"/>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The forecasting process can be described in the following 5 steps<ref name="ProductionManagamentbook"/>.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''1. Define the objective'''  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''1. Define the objective<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:</ins>'''  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Once the objective of a forecast has been defined, a planning horizon and degree of accuracy must be set (long, medium or short term). For example, to plan the operations of a company dedicated to the manufacture of scooters, it will be necessary to forecast the company's global sales for the coming year, in order to be able to make a detailed plan for the supply of raw materials, production processes, necessary resources or management of logistics for delivery to the customer.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Once the objective of a forecast has been defined, a planning horizon and degree of accuracy must be set (long, medium or short term). For example, to plan the operations of a company dedicated to the manufacture of scooters, it will be necessary to forecast the company's global sales for the coming year, in order to be able to make a detailed plan for the supply of raw materials, production processes, necessary resources or management of logistics for delivery to the customer.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''2. Collect data'''</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''2. Collect data<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:</ins>'''</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The main source of data collection is collected and cleaned. The more data that can be collected, the more accurate the forecast will be. Outliers in data are identified and resolved.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The main source of data collection is collected and cleaned. The more data that can be collected, the more accurate the forecast will be. Outliers in data are identified and resolved.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''3. Selecting forecasting technique'''</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''3. Selecting forecasting technique<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:</ins>'''</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>It is essential to to identify patterns in the collected data such as points of maximum, seasonality, and cycles. In most cases it will be relevant to visualize the data to identify patterns.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>It is essential to to identify patterns in the collected data such as points of maximum, seasonality, and cycles. In most cases it will be relevant to visualize the data to identify patterns.  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''4. Conduct the forecast'''</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''4. Conduct the forecast<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:</ins>'''</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The forecast is conducted with the appropriate forecasting technique.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The forecast is conducted with the appropriate forecasting technique.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''5. Validation'''</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''5. Validation<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">:</ins>'''</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Forecast accuracy should be evaluated and monitored to conclude if the forecast is performing as intended. In the case that it is not, decisions on forecasting technique, validity of data, and assumption can be revised.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Forecast accuracy should be evaluated and monitored to conclude if the forecast is performing as intended. In the case that it is not, decisions on forecasting technique, validity of data, and assumption can be revised.</div></td></tr>
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</table>Joakimchttp://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&diff=124142&oldid=prevJoakimc: /* Forecasting process */2023-02-11T16:28:15Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Forecasting process</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Forecasting process ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Forecasting process ==</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The forecasting process can be described in the following <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">6 </del>steps<ref name="ProductionManagamentbook"/>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The forecasting process can be described in the following <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">5 </ins>steps<ref name="ProductionManagamentbook"/>.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''1. Define the objective<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">.</del>'''  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''1. Define the objective'''  </div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Once the objective of a forecast has been defined, a planning horizon and degree of accuracy must be set (long, medium or short term). For example, to plan the operations of a company dedicated to the manufacture of scooters, it will be necessary to forecast the company's global sales for the coming year, in order to be able to make a detailed plan for the supply of raw materials, production processes, necessary resources or management of logistics for delivery to the customer.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Once the objective of a forecast has been defined, a planning horizon and degree of accuracy must be set (long, medium or short term). For example, to plan the operations of a company dedicated to the manufacture of scooters, it will be necessary to forecast the company's global sales for the coming year, in order to be able to make a detailed plan for the supply of raw materials, production processes, necessary resources or management of logistics for delivery to the customer.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''2. Collect data<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">. </del>'''</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''2. Collect data'''</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The main source of data collection is <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">sales history (last weeks, last months, last years)</del>. The <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">longer the sales history</del>, the more accurate the <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">forecasts (estimation techniques) </del>will be<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, as history plays a key role </del>in <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">detecting patterns, trends or seasonal periods. To these historical </del>data <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">will be added data provided by sales records/customer surveys, such as demographic references, most influential products or reports of incoming </del>and <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">outgoing stock</del>.  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The main source of data collection is <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">collected and cleaned</ins>. The <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">more data that can be collected</ins>, the more accurate the <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">forecast </ins>will be<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">. Outliers </ins>in data <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">are identified </ins>and <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">resolved</ins>.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''3. <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Validation and exploration analysis of the data collected.</del>'''</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''3. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Selecting forecasting technique</ins>'''</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>It is essential to <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">graphically represent the historical demand obtained, in order </del>to identify points of maximum <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">or minimum demand</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">seasonal patterns or repetitive </del>cycles <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">of market demand</del>. <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">On </del>the <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">other hand, if </del>data <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">validation is </del>to <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">be performed by different areas of the company, the production department should confirm that enough units were manufactured to support the collected sales, or the marketing department should analyze whether the peak sales points coincide with the times when intensive marketing campaigns were carried out</del>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>It is essential to to identify <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">patterns in the collected data such as </ins>points of maximum, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">seasonality, and </ins>cycles. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">In most cases it will be relevant to visualize </ins>the data to <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">identify patterns</ins>.  </div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''4. <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Choose </del>the <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">appropriate forecasting method and launch forecasts. </del>'''</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''4. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Conduct </ins>the <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">forecast</ins>'''</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Depending on the degree of accuracy desired, the resources and data available, qualitative or quantitative forecasts will be launched, </del>with <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">a given forecast horizon. Once these preliminary steps have been carried out, </del>the <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">desired forecasts will be launched</del>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">The forecast is conducted </ins>with the <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">appropriate forecasting technique</ins>.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''5. <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Validate the forecasts obtained.</del>'''</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''5. <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Validation</ins>'''</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Once the results have been obtained, all departments involved </del>should <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">verify that the data obtained are valid. Once this process has been completed, planning will </del>be <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">carried out based on </del>the <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">new forecasts</del>. In <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">other words, plan how to achieve </del>the <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">desired results. This planning</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">as mentioned above</del>, <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">will vary depending on the market in which the company is located </del>and <del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">the type of industry in which it operates</del>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">Forecast accuracy </ins>should be <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">evaluated and monitored to conclude if </ins>the <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">forecast is performing as intended</ins>. In the <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">case that it is not</ins>, <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">decisions on forecasting technique, validity of data</ins>, and <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">assumption can be revised</ins>.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Elements of a successful forecast ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Elements of a successful forecast ==</div></td></tr>
</table>Joakimchttp://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&diff=124129&oldid=prevJoakimc at 16:14, 11 February 20232023-02-11T16:14:50Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Various methods exist for forecasting, which are usually divided into qualitative and quantitative approaches. The choice of method depends on the characteristics of the data, the nature of the forecasting problem, and the desired level of accuracy. However, there are som key features that are common to all forecasts <ref name=<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">''</del>ProductionManagamentbook<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">''</del>> Stevenson, William J., et al. Operations management. Boston: McMcGraw-Hill Irwin, 2007 </ref>:</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>Various methods exist for forecasting, which are usually divided into qualitative and quantitative approaches. The choice of method depends on the characteristics of the data, the nature of the forecasting problem, and the desired level of accuracy. However, there are som key features that are common to all forecasts <ref name=<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">"</ins>ProductionManagamentbook<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">"</ins>> Stevenson, William J., et al. Operations management. Boston: McMcGraw-Hill Irwin, 2007 </ref>:</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>1. Forecasts follows the assumption that patterns from the past will, to some extent, remain in the future.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>1. Forecasts follows the assumption that patterns from the past will, to some extent, remain in the future.</div></td></tr>
</table>Joakimchttp://wiki.doing-projects.org/index.php?title=Forecasting_and_estimation_techniques&diff=124127&oldid=prevJoakimc: /* Forecasting process */2023-02-11T16:14:04Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Forecasting process</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Forecasting process ==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>== Forecasting process ==</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="background: #ffa; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The forecasting process can be described in the following 6 steps<ref name=<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">''</del>ProductionManagamentbook<del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">''</del>/>.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="background: #cfc; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>The forecasting process can be described in the following 6 steps<ref name=<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">"</ins>ProductionManagamentbook<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">"</ins>/>.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''1. Define the objective.'''  </div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background: #eee; color:black; font-size: smaller;"><div>'''1. Define the objective.'''  </div></td></tr>
</table>Joakimc