Levels of uncertainties

WIKI ARTICLE

Abstract

This wiki article discusses uncertainties and risks and the different levels of uncertainty that exist. Uncertainty is defined as any departure from the ideal of complete determinism, and it has several facets, such as nature, levels, division of one's cognizance, location/source, difficulties in communication, and human values/subjectivity. The levels of uncertainty, or scales of uncertainty, have been proposed by various scholars and are a way of measuring the probability of uncertainty states within a given system. There are several levels of uncertainty, ranging from statistical uncertainty, which can be expressed in statistical terms, to total ignorance, where we do not know what we do not know. The article describes how managers can use the levels of uncertainties to classify uncertainties in projects, programs, and portfolios, and evaluate the predictive capabilities of the information given to them or set about gathering more information. Developing appropriate reactions is key in managing uncertainties and risks, and getting an understanding of the level of uncertainty is a starting point.

Uncertainties and Risks

Uncertainty is a multifaceted creature and has been generally defined as “Any departure from the unachievable ideal of complete determinism”. Many frameworks have been developed to explain uncertainty, with different aspects. Most frameworks base themselves on the work of Walker et. al. (2003) (original 3 parts demarcated with *), dealing with 3 facets of uncertainty. Additions to the frameworks have however been made over time (