Levels of uncertainty

Abstract:

Uncertainty is a common challenge in project, program, and portfolio management. It can arise from a variety of sources, including unforeseen risks and challenges in project scope, budget, or timeline. In the understanding by Knight that uncertainty diverts from risk, by being non-quantifiable, the level of uncertainty can be used by managers to prepare and adapt to the unforeseen events. In this article, we will explore the different levels of uncertainty in project, program, and portfolio management and their implications, as well as strategies for treating them effectively.

Key points of investigation for the article includes:

- The emotional aspect of uncertainty and how to systematically consider mitigating effects of this (Geraldi et al., 2017)

- The five levels of uncertainty proposed by Riesch (Riesch, 2013), as well as other challenging ontologies. Further, how the five levels are relevant in project, program, and portfolio management, respectively

- Strategies and case studies to show the principles applied

The article concludes by highlighting the importance of adopting a systematic approach to uncertainty management and will provide valuable insights for project-, program-, and portfolio managers, as well as anyone involved in the planning and delivery of projects, programs, and portfolios.

References: Geraldi, J., Thuesen, C., Oehmen, J., & Stingl, V. (2017). Doing Projects. A Nordic Flavour to Managing Projects: DS-handbook 185:2017. Dansk Standard. Riesch, H. (2013). Levels of Uncertainty. In Springerbriefs in Philosophy (pp. 29–56). Springer Science and Business Media B.V. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5455-3_2

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