The Delphi Technique in Project Management
Contents |
Abstract
According to the definition of ISO 21500:2012 a Project is: “a unique set of processes consisting of coordinated and controlled activities with start and end dates, performed to achieve project objectives. Achievement of the project objectives requires the provision of deliverables conforming to specific requirements”.[1] [2]
The Delphi technique is used mostly for reaching consensus among experts, regarding the decision making process. Moreover, as a project manager is crucial to think about the impact that possible future events can have on your projects, this technique helps also in forecasting the future with some grade of certainty, estimating likelihood and outcomes.
The iterative process consist of anonymous exchange of views, assumptions and prevision given to a facilitator that will write a conclusive report. The group will read the report of the previous meeting, update their discussion and thoughts for the new report. The process continue in this way until the consensus is reached among all the participants. The anonymity assure the free expression of opinion and encourage openness. The process will start from a broad perspective than in the end will scope the core problems and questions to assure consensus, 3 phases has to be followed:
- Brainstorming: experts list the relevant factors and remove the duplicates
- Narrowing down: differentiate in panels and factors selection
- Ranking: rank the factors on own panel, calculate average, assess consensus
This method can be reiterate many times based on the analysis and the ranking of different factors list on panels, controlling every time the feedbacks (it can be done also online with virtual teams). It is used also to identify risk and opportunities, learning from mistakes, promoting a brainstorming session or to create a Work Breakdown Structure.
Big Idea
Brief history introduction
Delphi method was developed in 1953 by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey of the Rand Corporation as an instrument to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The name refers to the Delphi Oracle, a priestess at the Apollo temple in ancient Greece.
Definitions
"A method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem".[3]
“Technique to arrive at a group position regarding an issue under investigation. The Delphi method consists of a series of repeated interrogations, usually by means of questionnaires, of a group of individuals whose opinions or judgments are of interest. After the initial interrogation of each individual, each subsequent interrogation is accompanied by information regarding the preceding round of replies,usually presented anonymously. The individual is thus encouraged to reconsider and, if appropriate, to change his previous reply in light of the replies of other members of the group. After two or three rounds, the group position is determined by averaging”. [4]
General Concept
It is an essential project management technique used to gather information, the goal is to reduce the amount of different responses and reach the consensus among the experts (stated by some studies to be between 70% and 51%)[5],[6] ,this method is recognized, adopted and is it still used nowadays. Treating uncertainty is a central issue in project management, an entire literature about risk management can be found if interested to have more arguments. “Project management is about reducing uncertainty step by step until it has been eliminated completely, for better or worse, and we achieved a particular result” [7]. This method tries to break the stereotype that says: “When you get three experts together, you'll often end up with four different opinions.” Every project has his own characteristics and needs, consequently there is often not just one-size-fits all solution, we have to narrow down in all of his part to find the customized solution for the specific case. The participants in the process do not need meet, and sometimes they even do not know who are the other participants, only the facilitator knows everything and manages the information flow in order to avoid possible repercussions; the anonymity helps avoiding personal issues between member and the so-called “groupthink”. The phenomenon of groupthink can be really dangerous in an organisation, is marked by the consensus of opinion without thinking critically and evaluating other alternatives and consequences. The core point of this mistake is to do not break the status quo of the group, avoiding conflicts and creativity, this will reduce the pressure of the group toward conformity.
The structure of this technique give time to the participants to think properly about their opinion and responses, being so able to contribute with full hand to the problem to be solved or in the discussion. Moreover, the iterative nature of this approach gives the opportunity to refine, narrow down and test the arguments of the members (being able also to tone down some possible hard statements).
Applications
(Add Applications)
Limitations
(Add Limitations)
References
- ↑ Geraldi J., Thuesen C., Oehmen J., How to do Projects, Version 0.5
- ↑ Maylor H., Project Management, 4th edition, Pearson Education Limited 2010
- ↑ Linstone, H.A. and Turoff, M. (eds.) (1975) The Delphi Method Techniques and Applications. Massachusetts, Reading: Addison-Wesley.
- ↑ Web Dictionary of Cybernetics and Systems http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/ASC/indexASC.html; IIASA.
- ↑ Broomfield D, Humphris GM. Using the Delphi technique to identify the cancer education requirements of general practitioners. Med Educ 2001;35:928-937.
- ↑ McKenna, H, Hasson, F, & Smith M. A Delphi survey of midwives and midwifery students to identify non-midwifery duties Midwifery 2002; 18 (4): 314-322.
- ↑ Geraldi J., Thuesen C., Oehmen J., How to do Projects, Version 0.5
