The Pre-Mortem Analysis: Anticipate failure before starting a project

Abstract

Projects are by their nature unusual things that have not been done before or at least have not been done in the same way before, and that introduces uncertainty that can affect the outcome of a project. Because projects are uncertain, they all carry risks that can cause things to go wrong. These risks can potentially change the outcomes of a project. We have all heard the sentiment behind Murphy´s Law: \textit{"Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong"}. This is also applicable in the field of project management; projects are full of uncertainties that may or may not be predicted. However, some techniques can help identify project risks before they occur, thus preventing projects from failure. One useful technique that can prepare project managers and project teams for what can go wrong is called \textit{Pre-Mortem analysis} which is the main topic of this article.

The Pre-Mortem technique is typically conducted at the beginning of a project, at the planning stage, where a project team has been briefed on a project \cite{Mike}. The goal is to identify vulnerabilities or any signs of threats at the outset that could lead to risks of failure in the project and its course of action, hence increasing the success rate of a project. The technique will not only enrich the project by raising awareness of uncertainties and their likely consequences on the project's success but also strengthen the team members’ intuitions to become better at mentally simulating how a project is likely to play out. This enables the team to produce better plans and avoid threats \cite{GaryK}.