The Pre-Mortem Analysis: Anticipate failure before starting a project

Abstract

Projects are by their nature unusual things that have not been done before or at least have not been done in the same way before, and that introduces uncertainty that can affect the outcome of a project. Because projects are uncertain, they all carry risks that can cause things to go wrong. These risks can potentially change the outcomes of a project. We have all heard the sentiment behind Murphy´s Law: \textit{"Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong"}. This is also applicable in the field of project management; projects are full of uncertainties that may or may not be predicted. However, some techniques can help identify project risks before they occur, thus preventing projects from failure. One useful technique that can prepare project managers and project teams for what can go wrong is called \textit{Pre-Mortem analysis} which is the main topic of this article.

The Pre-Mortem technique is typically conducted at the beginning of a project, at the planning stage, where a project team has been briefed on a project \cite{Mike}. The goal is to identify vulnerabilities or any signs of threats at the outset that could lead to risks of failure in the project and its course of action, hence increasing the success rate of a project. The technique will not only enrich the project by raising awareness of uncertainties and their likely consequences on the project's success but also strengthen the team members’ intuitions to become better at mentally simulating how a project is likely to play out. This enables the team to produce better plans and avoid threats \cite{GaryK}.

Application

The six steps

1. Prepare by getting familiar with the project

2. Imagine the project completely failed - a Fiasco

3. Generate reasons for Failure

4. Consolidate the List of reasons

5. Generate ways to improve the project

Benefits of doing a Pre-Mortem

The Pre-Mortem technique has also other benefits besides identifying potential risks in a project. The technique helps to reduce the overconfidence that the project managers towards the project and its planned goals to be achieved. It is an efficient technique that allows to quickly identify high priority issues through bias-free and divers analysis by involving all relevant stakeholders in the process, and ensure everyone contributes in the discussion. Based on the experiments made by the Gary Klein \cite{GaryK}, it has shown that When the people approach a scenario with a failure mindset, they tend to generate more reasons for the failure, and they would suggest things they ordinarily would not suggest.

The method can strengthen both the manager's and the team members' mental model as they hear opinions and concerns about the project. It can create a corporate culture of honesty and trust that the team members would gain for each other as they hear ideas they had not thought of themselves.

Annotated Bibliography

Klien, G. (2003). The Power of Intuition: How to use your gut feelings to make better decisions at work. Publisher: Currency

The book reveals that 90 percent of critical decision-making is based on our intuition. The author of the book, and the creator of Pre-Mortem technique, Gary Klein is an expert on business decision making and his book is filled with fascinating tips and ideas, including the detailed explanation behind the concept of ’pre-mortem’ analysis for assessing the risks inherent in any decision, and social psychology. The book is essential reading for those who have a desire to develop their intuition skills in any context as well gaining more knowledge on the Pre-Mortem technique

Project management institute (2017). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide). (6th edition)

PMBOK Guide book is the recognized standard of project management that provides rules, guidelines, and characteristics for project management. The stage of the project lifecycle and the project management responsibilities on stage-by-stage are further elaborated in the book that could be useful for the readers.