The paradox of project planning – four strategies for planning successful projects

Abstract

The paradox of project planning refers to the inherent tension between the desire to plan to thoroughly plan a project and the limitations of our ability to predict the future. In his book How Big Things Get Done, Bent Flyvbjerg presents four strategies to mitigate what he calls “The Iron Law of Megaprojects: over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again”. According to Flyvbjergs research on more than 16.000 projects in 136 countries, only 8.5 percent delivers on budget and in time, while a mere 0.5 percent deliver on cost, time and benefits.

So why does 91.5 percent of projects go over budget or schedule or underdeliver expected benefits or a combination hereof, and how can project planning help mitigate the The Iron Law of Megaprojects?

Background

• Project planning in project management standards.
• Major causes for project failure as a result from bad project planning.
• Heuristics for project planning adopted from How Big Things Get Done (2023) and Make Megaprojects More Modular (2021) by Bent Flyvbjerg and Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice Flyvbjerg (2008).

Four planning strategies for successful planning successful projects

• Think Slow, Act Fast
  • Plan, test and verify before you execute.
• Plan like Pixar and Gehry
  • Use simulation and iteration to plan.
• Build with Lego
  • Make your projects more modular.
• Curb your optimism
  • Use reference forecasting to predict your project.

Application

• provide guidance on how to use the tool, concept or theory and when it is applicable

Limitations

• Under vs overplanning
• Too much planning limits the creativity of projects

References

Flyvbjerg, B., & Gardner, D. (2023). How big things get done: The surprising factors behind every successful project, from home renovations to space exploration. Macmillan.

Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2021, "Make Megaprojects More Modular," Harvard Business Review, November-December issue, pp. 58-63.2

Flyvbjerg, Bent. (2008). Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice. European Planning Studies. 16. 3-21. 10.1080/09654310701747936

Project Management Institute, Inc. (PMI). (2021). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK ® Guide) – 7th Edition and The Standard for Project Management - 3. Project Management Principles. Project Management Institute, Inc. (PMI).