Overcoming the Planning Paradox

Abstract

This article will explore productive approaches to dealing with the Planning Paradox.

"No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the main enemy forces.
Only the layman believes that in the course of a campaign he sees the consistent implementation of an
original thought that has been considered in advance in every detail and retained to the end."
~Field Marshal Moltke the Elder

The point of departure for this analysis will be a civilian reading of military theory, grounded in the appreciation that war is an endeavor with dynamic and unforgiving external constraints where leadership complacency is punished severely. The following is based on the premise that civilian organizations can learn from experienced military leaders accustomed to navigating volatile situations. The abstraction level for the analysis in a peaceful context is to seek inspiration in more wicked problems, on how to embrace uncertainty and adapt to surprises in a structured way that touches on all four course dimensions. On multiple scales, a popular strategy appears to be reducing organizational complexity by means of flattening leadership structures where swift action is required. This principle is also deployed where every member of a team has the competencies to dynamically transfer leadership based on who has the most situational awareness. The intent of this is to shorten the collective decision cycle or OODA loop in a dynamic situation, to avoid bottle-necking decision making in a single individual who might be denied sufficient situational awareness to make a productive decision. Here a short summary of factors for cohesion will be provided as well. In a project scale perspective, the wide array of Agile Frameworks have a common aim: Shorten development cycles to face reality in the form of stakeholder feedback on MVP’s. The intent of this strategy is to reality check assumptions and self-correct away from sunk-cost behavior with minimum investment. Here, dysfunctional implementations of Scrum will be explored as a warning against unreflected framework deployment.

Finally, on the Portfolio level this article will also explore the risks of Path Dependence with respect to situational agility. The case studies for this exploration will focus on hesitancies to exploit technological salients that big organizations otherwise appeared to be poised to dominate. This analysis will respect the good intentions of the leadership, attempting to contextualize their hesitations with the organizational complexity they had to work with as well as the corporate cultures they had to navigate. These examples will be picked up with a conclusion on the relative merits and limitations of the tools explored, followed by a recommendations to continually adapt leadership strategies and framework deployment to the situation at hand and keep organizational structure ready for changes as the situation permits.

Decision Making Lessons from a Fighter Pilot

Simple Boyd Cycle

John Richard Boyd was a United States Airforce (USAF) fighter pilot who, after his combat deployment in Korea, got his nickname "forty seconds" from a standing bet he made as an instructor in the USAF Fighter Weapons School(FWS). The bet was that he, within forty seconds, could defeat an opponent from a position of disadvantage in Air Combat Maneuvering (ACM). After instructing he went on to contribute to the development of the F-15 Eagle, as well as laying the strategic foundations for the USAF Lightweight Fighter programme with his Energy-Maneuverability theory of aerial combat. His true legacy is one of tactical and strategical thinking. He was very critical of rigid structure of command and other symptoms of inflexibility. An example of this is found in his "Patterns of Conflict" presentation that compares Napoleon Bonaparte's early and late tactics, scolding the late Emperor for his top-down approach to tactics. His critique was that Napoleons rigid flow of orders was a tactical waste of sound strategy, and that the lack of afforded initiative to the lower parts of the organization was a key factor in his defeat.

A key concept underpinning Boyd's strategic and tactical teachings is his decision cycle, better known as the OODA loop developed for aerial combat decision making. It is an abbreviation for Observation, Orientation, Decision and Action: First, information is gathered about the situation. Second, the actor must rely on experience to orientate themselves in the situation. Third, a decision must be made before finally acting. This cycle repeats continuously, and Boyd's central point with the decision cycle was that if two adversaries with equal capabilities with respects to skill and resources meet in conflict: Then the pilot who closes the OODA loop the fastest wins. Note that action itself is within the loop as a point of order that needs to be completed before gathering more information.

• Observation: Raw information about the situation is collected.
• Orientation: The information is parsed through experience, with subjective analysis of what might happen.
• Decision: A review of possible courses of action ending in selection.
• Action: Decision enactment.

Considering the concept of Path Dependency - and by extension the sunk cost fallacy - through Boyd's decision cycle the error becomes glaring: The OODA-loop is not closed and re-initiated, but the actor remains in the last phase - stuck on action without further review of the situation. The situational awareness is not maintained and the action becomes blind and predictable to adversarial response.

Any given problem or set of problems might develop into a threat, even without adversarial and malicious intent. For example he discovery of a "unknown-unknown" after a project has been scoped and initiated presents a similar management challenge. Continual usage of the Boyd Cycle is a deceptively simple framework for dealing with a developing situation, developed for the worst kind of problem: Another actor seeking to destroy you. The OODA-loop is intended to be applied at all levels, from the operational, through the tactical and up to the strategic level. Abstracted to a civilian context and in summary: The OODA-loop must develop as fast as, or quicker than, the problem being dealt with.

Organizational Structure - Perils and Opportunities

Elaboration and contextualization of Boyd's briefings through Osinga.

What is strategy? A mental tapestry of changing intentions for harmonizing and focusing our efforts as a basis for realizing some aim or purpose in an unfolding and often unforeseen world of many bewildering events and many contending interests. ~John Boyd

• Introduce Actor Network Theory and the abstract notion of non-human actors.
• Set the adversarial premise that any given non-human problem is a blind attacker in the context of Boyd's broader strategic perspective.
• Summarize Boyds inspiration in entropy and the importance of simplicity.
• Emergent and reactive complexity from simple constituents.
• Overconstraining in an organizational context.

NASA & USN

After the Columbia space shuttle disaster and the following Senate hearings, where the testimony of Admiral Rickover prompted a collaboration between NASA and USN. Rickover managed the Naval Nuclear Reactor (NR) programme, successfully deploying principles that allowed for safe operation of reactors. This lead to a collaboration known NASA/Navy Benchmarking Exchange, where practices in the NR programme were examined by the NASA to learn how the USN systematically mitigated the risks of running and maintaining high risk technology without accidents.

Among the learnings was that NR had embedded safety processes within the organization, such that a quality or safety office was functionally unnecessary. The organization is relatively flat with easy access to the director, and the organization promotes voicing diverse and differing opinions. Here it was noted that when no differing opinions are present, managers were responsible for critical examination of the issue that actively encouraged such opinions. Recruitment and training of highly qualified professionals is relied upon, to keep them personally accountable and responsible for operational safety. The institution had embedded a closed loop learning process based on technical requirements that feed into the foundation of future design specifications.

These findings led to opportunities for NASA to consider alternative organizational and management approaches for future programmes, as well as approaches for safety critical decision making. Selected USN submarine approaches to safety procedures and fora for free and critical discussion of critical safety issues.

The practices and organization of USN was directly addressing the objective of safe operation, not relegating this as a seperate activity or oversight entity.

BEF, Kodak & IBM

The British Expeditionary Force (BEF) were first to deploy Armored Fighting Vehicles (AFV) under the codename "Tanks" in the first world war, pioneering the concept of "lightning war". The organization of the British Army was not ready for these strange machines that did not fit in anywhere. AFV's were as such more of an appendix than a main chapter. The Nazis had no such organizational barriers as they had to build an army from the ground up to satisfy their expansionist goals, as the conditions of surrender from the first world war had demanded a demilitarization of Germany. As such, the BEF were surprised by tactics they themselves had invented as the hitlerian "Blitzkrieg" plowed through the Ardennes forest in 1940. Right past the french Maginot Line, the most elaborately planned defensive line ever constructed. According to economist Tim Harford, the Treaty of Versailles backfired militarily on the Triple Entente by removing the military, giving the nazis an opportunity to organize a modern war machine from a clean slate.

Kodak was a very large film company, highly technology focused and specialized in one way of producing images. When the technological salient began closing to provide the opportunity to make digital photography, Kodak did not seize their brand opportunity to stay "picture company" number one. The company considered themselves tied to their technology of choice, and the emergent technology became the competitor. Kodak had the finest production facilities for producing film, and that production capability became their center of identity and probably the reason why they acted like the the new technology was an adversarial force. To their credit, they did not possess the electronics capabilities of other Japanese brands like Toshiba. But Kodak's adherence to film photography invariably led to their bankruptcy as the market favored digital solutions. They were inflexible in their objective, disinterested in what they provided but highly focused on how they provided it. They remained a film company, but lost out as a picture company.

IBM similar to Kodak but with personal computing. Refused to think in volume. Out of time soon. Draft! Sorry!

Inflexible Agility

The concept of an agile framework can be argued to be a misnomer, in the sense that the terse principles of the agile manifesto is the outline of a philosophy that rebels against the characteristics of frameworks.

• Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
• Working software over comprehensive documentation
• Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
• Responding to change over following a plan

The first point that team dynamics are valued higher than the processes and tools leveraged to achieve the objective. The official Scrum website warns against “Mechanical” Scrum, being described as simply going through the motions, ticking the boxes, and performing the ritual as set out by the Scrum guide. Practitioners are encouraged to shift their focus beyond the cycle, pointing to a set of values as well as the agile manifesto to orient the framework toward outcomes. Adherence to the certified cycle remains a recipe to keep development “agile”. Zooming out to the larger, Scaled Agile framework (SAFe), also bearing a certificate to implement agile processes in larger organizations promise a structural, process-based recipe for agility, incorporating a palette of tools and processes.

The certifications imply that there is a correct way to be agile, within a given structure that suggests that following the recipe will result in agility. The danger with these approaches that critics such as Jeff Gothelf and Allen Holub point to, is that dogmatic adherence to these processes and tool implementations is missing the point of agility entirely. The focus of these frameworks pivot back to predictable delivery over flexibility in planning and course correction. A predetermined set of features becomes the focus over the objective of delivering customer success.

“SAFe gives the illusion of “adopting agile” while allowing familiar management processes to remain intact. In a world of rapid continuous change, evolving consumer consumption patterns, geopolitical instability and exponential technological advancements this way of working is unsustainable.”
- Jeff Gothelf

If these practices are taken up without critical reflection, tools and processes risk becoming impediments to the effectiveness of the deliveries in the pursuit of efficient development. Balancing these two concepts is at the core of Lean, Toyotas industrial structuring that is poised toward servant leadership and cutting out any activity that does not bring value to the end user. The concept of servant leadership is a salient point here, the practice of continuously adapting tools and processes to the trusted, professional practitioners delivering the value.

Conclusion - Contextual Framework Implementation

Use Boyd's principles of adaptive decision-making. Take inspiration from the flat-like-structure of USN NR and their focus on direct communication, accountability, evaluation and implementation. Show how that relates to the OODA loop. Point to path dependencies and cultural factors within behemoth organizations. Learn from Kodak, IBM and BEF.

Organization should never precede the objective.